True, I am 100% with you on that.The point here is, when you analyze, you do based on what you know now (what is known as a fact today) and on what is highly likely to happened (again from today) and to accept the fact that things might change tommrow.Life happened every day, that’s why  we need to stay firm with our direction but flexible with our approach.having lived through the HORRORS of those years fully engrossed in the industry almost nationwide... it was regional on who did well and who had troubles.. no question well positioned landlords in Portland for instance no issue.. 

It seems that many of these companies are accepting investment in return for unsecured loans and new capital is constantly being raised to pay off investor redemptions.

@Michael LynchI don't know of any 'large' bank that would accept a 3rd position. 

Thanks Dennis, I think you're right that planning for a more conservative return would be a good idea.I re-ran my numbers at an even more conservative level:Lower ARV: $800,000Lower income levels (I'm assuming it will take a couple years to get up to full potential income, but giving myself 3 years was a conservative estimate):Year 1: 50k (NOI $1,000)Year 2: 80k (NOI $31,000)Year 3: 100k (NOI $51,000)My ROI numbers come out to:1% (year 1) 46% (year 2) 76% (year 3)This scenario seems like an acceptable risk to me, when the upside seems far more profitable.

@Joshua Lanzieri when renovating older properties there are almost always negative surprises.Go watch any HGTV renovation show and most of them will have this as a cliff-hanger, forcing the choice of either going over budget or cutting back elsewhere.10% overruns happen often, but 50% is NOT acceptable!

I screen individual dogs (of any breed) with an in-person evaluation before accepting their owners as my tenants.  

Condos are also starting to only accept 20% down with reserves, not a good invest strategy at the moment.I'd recommend you stay in Tampa, Sarasota, buy some SF, duplex that need some lipstick and loving, put a tenant in there, and then get a heloc and repeat.

The pay stubs can be hard copies or digital PDFs generated directly by your employer and sent via email; we cannot accept screen captures to verify income.Once your completed application materials have been received and it appears that you would meet our qualifying criteria, we would send you a link to perform a credit/criminal background check (this minor expense would be yours), and if those results come back acceptable, we would offer to proceed.

Would you accept a tenant telling you they were going to change how much rent they were going to pay, despite what their lease contract stated?

I added arcade games, board games and accept pets as well.