Crazy thing, when the Fed exploded its balance sheet with TARP and the assorted QE's, the inflation rate never spiked above 1%.

Leverage 70-80% LTV (Debt): Borrow max amount of money at artificially low rates, with complete disregard to what will happen once the Fed loses control of bond market and treasuries spike. 2.

Also I feel the casa grande will see a huge spike in the next few years.

The market won't have a dramatic shift this year unless interest rates spike.

I live in CT where prices are already high and have spiked with NY’ers migrating up here since Covid but to be honest with you where CT and Phoenix likely differ is that CT has more of a bleak future so I don’t see any sustained appreciation.

New construction areas generally see a spike when the vacant lots have all been consumed, and a lag in appreciation up to that point. 

However, the rental market also can spike up or down. 

Speculators and subprime loans backed by Wall Street led to a 50% spike in metro Phoenix home prices during 2005 and 2006, and then a record number of foreclosures from 2008 to 2012. 

On the other hand, there are significant spikes in loan delinquencies and forbearance. 

The problem becomes what happens when they go to underwriting in a highly volatile time.My personal opinion is that as credit starts to tighten and the effects of the unemployment spike start to seep into the market you’ll start to see that drag on the market.