When I assemble raw land for commercial commission it could be years before I get paid and then economic cycle could fall.

To answer your question as simply as possible; subdividing developed or raw land is essentially the same.

If I find land that is available with utilities already on it and it pencils out to be a fare deal without having to put the work into it I will also purchase land like that but it usually a way better deal to get the raw land and improve it.

After you determine the price point on the lots you work backwards form there and subtract all costs of the development and a profit margin you are happy with to determine the price you can pay for the raw land.

Just based off the raw numbers without factoring in the rehab, I would offer around $350,000. 

Would something like raw comp data be helpful? 

In addition, the millage, based on Local, county, and municpal taxes are significantly lower in those satellite counties too because they have a better tax base and more adept governing bodies (despite not having the raw number of people).

The raw number looks good but what does it leave available in your calendar?  

The amount of your relinquished property, the purchase price of the raw land, value of construction, and debt coverage needed for the 1031 are all elements that could dramatically shape the best path forward. 

I am a City Planner and used to process entitlements for developers of raw land in Phoenix, AZ from residential to commercial, industrial, mixed use multifamily, etc.