The Hypersupply phase can last anything from 2-4 years before a recession hits.With the onset of this disrupter - the response to the Corona virus -the Fed has pre-empted the actions normally taken during the Recession to try to stimulate the economy but the drivers for this recession are not economically based and so this again skews the normal cycles.The best lens to to try to assess risk is to stay focused on the dynamics of the normal market - prices for multi-family properties are driven by the demand from investors - the competition for the properties is driven by both the desire for the business ( availability of investors) and the cashflow the property can produce in the future - the cashflow is determined by the space market - ie the market for rental space- the rental space market is driven by the employment market largely.

If supply and demand decrease at comparable levels, there shouldn't be any huge price swings or market dynamic shifts.

A 70k win sounds good, but when you have a 200k house that needs 150k of work, that dynamic is not a great equation.

See the dynamics?

Both types of cities have a contingent of neighborhood groups that are opposed based on the claim that Airbnb ruins the character of neighborhoods.So far, I don't see Covid superseding those existing dynamics.

It is a dynamic market but remember you have to buy right to make the money . . . you don't make it selling if you paid too much. 

It is good to be able to visualize the position of the buyer.

We had a similar situation last year and put a couple visuals (sheet of paper on the wall with picture) we could change (adding another closet in the master by taking space from the adjoining room - blue taped floor (2k+), extra pantry cabinet (800$$+) ended up selling the weekend after we did all the options and the buyer didn’t even want it, I think they just wanted to know it was fixable if they really really wanted to.

On the plus side- you’re clearly learning how the P&L of an STR works, which is a great step in the right direction that unfortunately many investors learn *after* they’ve made the purchaseAnother thing to note: don’t “cook the books” in your underwriting by undershooting cleaning expense (if using Airdna) .. you should be changing your ADR dynamically to boost occupancy in order to *maximize* revenue .. but this in effect “maximizes” cleaning fees as well ..

I'm using it more as a visual.