part of what i take from your message is that STRs' income is highly volatile (compared to long term rentals for example), so that the cost of this risk makes up some of the gap that i'm seeing with the numbers...  

Just hate to pass up on potentially holding on to this property, especially when you consider today's market though volatile potentially soon.Not interested in a refi if I'll be renting long-term.  

Markets like Baytown, Pasadena, LaPorte, etc are very dependent on oil & gas so they tend to be a little more volatile. 

It's a volatile, unusual time, and nobody really knows what will happen.

This may make it more challenging to find cashflowing properties and it may make this market more volatile when the market turns back the other way.

This investment should be a good hedge against the stock market volatility.

The thing about real estate that tends to lower the volatility compared to certain other investments is that it is not very liquid. 

Interest rates are very volatile at the moment, and a lot of folks are theorizing that the Fed will be less aggressive than previously planned in terms of increasing the rate.

You use a 25 year period specifically to smooth out volatility and infer stability. 

With the recent volatility in the market, I am seeing rates go up and other loan terms tightening.