I would be cautious of considering it for less than a 10 year play.This is what we typically do (it is not rocket science):Purchase an RE that has a value add, ideally is a little below market value, in a nice enough area with good appreciation benchmarks. 

In the modern investing era, the stock market has averaged a 10% annual return.

In the modern investing era, the stock market has averaged a 10% annual return.

Since I am not selling lots and will be building all the homes  ( modern farm house )  we did not go with an HOA there is no private open space to manage..

Determining ARV is an art and a science - you definitley get better with practice and tools.

My personal take is: these houses have been there for 100 years already, there is a good chance they will continue to be there for another 100+.I also think there are some changes to modern building practices that make some modern homes less structurally sound than most older, i.e. 24 OC framing just always seems like it won't stand the test of time like 16 OC has. 

Moral: there is no science, it is a bit of trial and error and continuing to trust your instincts, if they haven't led you astray yet.

While this is an unprecedented event in modern history, what lessons do we have from 2008 and previous recessions/depressions that are relevant in the next year or so?

The new improved features I love about the streamlined version are ~~ It was modern and fun to fill out.

In the end, tenant screening isn't an exact science so only time will tell.