I know you have to take the property as a whole and all look at all numbers, including location, NOI, Cap rates, future value speculation, Gross rent multiplier, etc, but is there 1 main item that you're looking for that helps you decide on whether to pull the trigger and purchase?

Buried in the document is the mention that so-called "speculative" businesses are ineligible:"Speculative businesses include: ...

If you have to get out in 2-3 years than this will be more speculation than investing.

There's really no need to speculate.

I didn't say they wouldn't drop, I'm just not one to speculate. 

Are you speculating rates will go down by then?

If your financial models DEPEND on future hypotheticals, you're not investing--you're speculating.

I'm not saying that you should pursue something as a speculative gamble, but simply evaluate a realistic perspective of where the market is headed.

everyone is speculating about the appraiser here without enough info.if the seller is basing the sale price on the STR income, and the appraiser is basing the appraisal on comps, there's no contradiction...

I agree with @Bill Brandt except that I would guess that they wouldn't be surprised since they have likely been there awhile with no rent increases (but that is just speculation).