Nice job being conservative on your maint and CAPEX numbers.

With my analysis I buy at 300k and it will be worth not much more than 450k conservatively (less than current asking price).

We will re-list it at a VERY conservative $3.3M.

For example, you can find a very conservative non-public REIT that has much less risk than a high-yield junk bond.

One just need read the law for a very easy understandingThe preceding sentence shall not apply to any foreign taxes described in subsection (a)(3) or to any taxes described in paragraph (1) and (2) of subsection (a) which are paid or accrued in carrying on a trade or business or an activity described in section 212.And then the reference from the above law to IRS Code 212(1) It has been paid or incurred by the taxpayer during the taxable year (i) for the production or collection of income which, if and when realized, will be required to be included in income for Federal income tax purposes, or (ii) for the management, conservation, or maintenance of property held for the production of such income, or (iii) in connection with the determination, collection, or refund of any tax; and(2) It is an ordinary and necessary expense for any of the purposes stated in subparagraph (1) of this paragraph.And for even simplified version, just look at the IRS guidance on the subject...What Deductions Can I Take as an Owner of Rental Property?

There's even less of a guarantee that you will fail big than there is that you will succeed big, if you keep your wits about you, stay conservative in your estimates, and always look out for Murphy's Law.

Always be conservative. 

I sometimes wonder if I am being to conservative on the Repairs, capex, and etc.

I do like how conservative your numbers are for maintenance/PM/vacancy/etc, but IMO you could probably knock those back from 10% to 8 or even 5% and still be in good shape. 

(So long as those refinance 25 yr fixed loan terms are also actual/conservative!)