I would not factor in social security since, if you are in the 35% tax bracket, you are likely already over the social security base.sounds about accurate of 45% to 50%

All about your goal and growth plan, with a Brrrr I would also add an Atleast 10% contingency for your renovation and make sure the ARV is accurate to be able to pull more cashout or pay yourself back the down payment on the refinance.

So they'd loan about 450k if your ARV is 1M (assuming this ARV is accurate), and then you can get a gap lender for the difference (180k plus closing costs/points/etc, holding costs).  

If using accurate underwriting (something close to 50% expense estimate) your costs will be far in excess of your $3k current lodging expense.  

I have gone through scenario after scenario and feel like I am not getting accurate numbers to go off of. 

Just not very accurate.

How accurate is this today and in the next ten years with inflation?

Plus you’re gambling since it’s not rented.3.  

Quote from @Kelcey Gamble: Most loans require you occupy for a year or two before you can rent the home.

Then, and only then, will you get an accurate cost to build "your home".2 - There are a number of different "residential" zoning types.