I won't make any predictions, but we are definitely in the latter stages of this cycle.

It has been booming for awhile now ... how much longer and higher it will continue to go boom before it goes bust and how far and deep the eventual bust will last is anyone's guess, and I believe it to be a fool's errand to try to predict such things IMO.

I predict that whatever is causing this clog came from either myself, my wife, or the BABY.

It is hard to predict it but if you are trying, why not choose a city that has tons of jobs continuing to move there as well as a 50 year history of sustained growth.  

Here's a good article from Harvard on How to Use Real Estate Trends To Predict The Next Bubble .  

The slight extra they are allowed to hold is to cover annual tax and insurance increases that they can't effectively predict and budget until that year's payments go out which is too late to collect them. 

The property sold for over $150,000 in 2007, so not a war zone...now granted that was then, before the crash, but the if the market is projected to recover at some slow but predictable rate, then appreciation could happen, but won't if the intrinsic value of the homes has decreased because now they are vacant and boarded up.

However, you can note it when you find the IRR and simply subtract your predicted inflation rate from the IRR as the cash you receive further in the future will inflate away more. 

There's always some puffing with numbers in most circles as people are trying to predict the market.

Hope all going well with you.Way better than I predicted 5 months ago!