. - reality is MLS listings using realistic expense estimates at high LTV is cash flow negative

Taking a day and getting a few estimates is really the best way to understand if management is way too high or just reasonably high, and you just may find some great contractor relationships that save you $$$$ for years. 

We can try to estimate the 1st number though, based upon what you've shared - $80k equity + $26k loan balance = $106k current value.You want to spend $65k more, so adding that to current $26k loan = new loan $91k$91k / $106k current value => 86% Loan-To-ValueNo lender's going to touch that!

Zillow rent estimator predicts $3000/month I’m not looking to cash flow much year 1.

Estimated equity is $230,000. 

I estimated that my repair costs would be around 25k. 

So my thought is to provide a summary to sellers of the 3 options on the front end which explain the pros/cons with each and ultimately provide them with an estimate of their proceeds based on the option they select. 

I have looked into AirDNA and AirBnB estimates and I want to know how much stock I can take with their estimates?

Talk to a local realtor to ask about after reno estimate on the place, but just because you put in $160K in renos, doesn't mean the place is worth an extra $160K.  

-and - no one is going to take any responsibility if any of the numbers are off. if the ARV is off - that's on you. if your estimate for the rehab is off - that's on you. if it takes 6 months to rent once you're done - that's on you.hope this helps