We've had an oversupply in housing the past 2 years or so and will probably continue for the next 1-2 years, but everything I'm seeing has shown next construction starts have dropped substantially in the past 1-2 years so good chance we have an undersupply again in about 2-4 years once everything still being completed does finish and gets leased up.

Since you mentioned the property needs a lot of work, if you could put in some higher end finishes into the cabin (kitchens and bathrooms), there would almost certainly be a pretty solid base of STR guests wanting to stay there - almost without exception, every modern STR cabin in Minnesota and Wisconsin that I've seen are all doing tremendous numbers.  

Finished one of the bedrooms that was in dated and aged shape.

I lived in the front half while my subcrews where finishing up other areas.

I personally think 2% is reasonable, especially if he found the deal and did all the work to get it over the finish line.

Once my son has finished school we will have a little more flexibility to purchase a PR or MFP in other areas.

You didn't finish your thought but Id confidently say that hitting the walls, ceiling and subfloor with Kilz primer will take care of the stale reeky smell of cigarettes. 

So let’s say I finished up my Rehab and I want to look for a refinance I got a person to come to the house to see if I get an appraisal, is this how the process works?

It would help us to understand the attainability of your goal if you would mention how many flips you have under your belt already.Assuming you are experienced, then I'd say move forward, full speed ahead--you can do it.If you are inexperienced, I would respectfully suggest you change from a $$$-oriented goal to a ### of transactions goal.Why?

Within the next decade we would see more out migration from bay area to sacramento/central valley area so that's good option to attain opps in either direction.