The trick in dale city is to analyze each neighborhood separately, there seems to be a lot of variability.  

The other variable you want to keep an eye out for is flood insurance, that is another deal killer. 

The Heloc is variable rate interest.Because of the small loan, the Lender fees is high and It tough to take a decision to move forward with loan or cash purchase.I would like to hear from you if you had such situations and how you handled

Lots of variables depending perhaps how long they've been there, are the utilities on and in who's name?   

.-0.35-2.87Realtor.com’s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead.

The duct work seems like a big variable so let's say $8k as well.That's $18k in rehab costs before any minor things like flooring / painting / fixtures.Do these numbers seem egregiously off?

So many of the variables in your analysis would be people and their opinions on value and where the market is going.As you mention, after tax cost is a concern as your rentals may be generating taxable income however your rent is not tax deductible. 

type comments, but it seems I might be on track.  20%+closing +++ down is tough and also a risk and your credit is got to be good enough for a bank so it seemed on target... but the thought of Hard Money and deals that encompass Balloon loans, and variable rates etc., are scary to me! 

@Neal Collins - Thank you for clarifying that the inclusion of rentals in the MLS is variable!

i know there are alot of variables with selling and buying real estate.