We use current rates and then apply sensitivity analysis for an exit period that shows us a range of potential outcomes depending on macro forces that are outside out control.Cap rates and interest rates, specifically the US 10 year treasury are relatively correlated, with cap rates lagging behind rate movements.

While there is broad agreement that government spending will provide needed assistance to individuals and businesses harmed by the pandemic, increased government spending is negative for mortgage rates since additional Treasury bonds must be issued to fund the spending, which causes a rise in yields (and ultimately mortgage rates).

I watch the Ten year treasury to see where the day might be on rates, but beyond that there is no way to tell unless the Feds have words to say. 

However, I have been offered a HELOC through a local credit union based on the One Year Treasury Security Rate index, currently 2.376 (.0125 + 2.25 margin).

Admittedly Mtg rates have traditionally track the 10yr Treasury Bills but these are different times.

Real estate works like a treasury bond - it will make you good money, over 30 years... a property with a given rent will be priced differently when interest rates changes.

But if out of state people working from home keep buying, well then the market keeps rising. 30yr rates are starting to tick up and the 10yr treasury notes.

Keep in mind this is a variable rate and 10 year treasuries have shot up in the last couple days, some places already quoting 1/4 pt higher interest rate.A heloc will have a lower payment then if you just refinance the 1st position mortgage and do a cash out loan because the heloc is only interest, whereas the conventional loan would be interest and principal, but would lock you in at a low rate...

Fortunately for investors, yields on the 10-year Treasury note, at 1.291%, remained steady after the minutes were released.

Its really like looking at the stock market...do you invest in Treasury bonds and get a safe, dependable but small return...or do you go big, YOLO and Wall Street Bets that next GME Stock?