So, David L, if your objective is a successful exit (or even predictable returns as forecasted - which was my objective), my opinion is stay far away from Open Door Capital.   

Without predictability on insurability and risk of the primary collateral being destroyed (which at this point theoretically could happen anywhere) as it’s January, and would you believe in 2023 that 71K thousand square miles of northern Canada burned 5% of the entire Canadian forest with billions in damages? 

FWIW, I'm going to base this off a 1,500 SF single family new build, but I'll predict the build cost will be a little over $200/SF.

Some tools give you a glimpse of predicted future performance.

I predict Albany Park turns into the next Lincoln Square and gets even pricier.

I’d also love to hear your predictions for how the real estate financing landscape might shift this year and how you plan to position yourself for success.

Instead of paying billable hours for every case, a salaried attorney could handle the same volume of work at a more predictable cost.Service Quality: I also see an opportunity to provide better service to ourselves and the owners we represent.

I predict that the guys who are fully leveraged and cash flowing $100 per month will be motivated sellers when the next big correction happens.actually its either them or they walk and its their lenders selling that is what happened in that time period.. and was pronounced in certain markets.for me personally  I don't want to risk  my credit and finances and borrow 75k to make 1200 a year... or even 2400 a year if its a market that has a history of no appreciation and I don't feel there is going to be any significant appreciation.. 2 to 3% a year does not cut it.but I will take 500 a month negative or 10k a month negative if I think there are huge gains at the other end.. 

STRs can bring great returns but are higher risk and more hands-on, like small-cap stocks, while long-term rentals are stable and predictable, like large-cap investments.

@Ryan Fox - It's pretty unpredictable in my opinion, but I'm sure there are people way smarter than me that can better see/predict what's coming down the pike.