I know we can't predict how things might pane out a year or so ... 

They wanted to use FHA financing, but predictably, that didn't work out.

Chelsea still has ways to go, but I predict it will be continue to gentrify in the next 5-10 years. 

They wanted to use FHA financing, but predictably, that didn't work out.

I invest $100K in it as an LP, giving me a 0.5% share of the property.The investor summary predicts the following NOI:Year 1: $1MYear 2: $1.25MYear 3: $1.5MSo given my 0.5% ownership stake, does that mean I would be receiving a K-1 showing my income from this as:Year 1: $5,000Year 2: $6,250Year 3: $7,500If we continue the example and say that I receive an 8% dividend each year, then my actual profit each year would be:Year 1: $8,000 - $5,000 = $3,000Year 2: $8,000 - $6,250 = $1,750Year 3: $8,000 - $7,500 = $500This tells me that I must be missing something incredibly fundamental in all this -- that one of my assumptions is so egregiously wrong that it invalidates literally everything else.But what?

No one has a crystal ball in regards to predicting the value of home prices in the future.Your next property can go up 20%, stay flat or even decrease in value.A lot of BP'ers are speculating we are at or near the top of the real estate market.

Humans are terrible at predicting and therefore one comes to the conclusion, then why do it at all?

Irvington is established and predictable for the most part.

For the long-term generational investors who also subscribe to the global warming and shortage of fresh water predictions, WI will become the prime real estate on the planet in that scenario - lol.

WOW, thank you Andrew for your reply, it seems like if I purchase a brand new house, I will have to depend on the home price to increase and the chance is hard to predict.