If you are not able to add value in your active portfolio (or get predictable appreciation), 15-20% passive returns will be competitive or beat active investing, with much less work.What is also interesting is if you look at your post-rehab returns on your active portfolio (i.e. holding after the value add), they can be on par with a passive investment...but more work than a passive investment.

Please rank the following areas for highest predicted home value increase over next 2 years:EverettEast BostonDorchester (which area within Dorchester)South BostonWinthropRevereRoxbury

If they are halfway decent they will give you a break down of ROI on your purchase, and predict what rent will be after. 

I have a lot of confidence of on-going short-term rent appreciation (next 5 years) but less confidence of significant on-going property appreciation (I expect a leveling off but am not real confident of any prediction).High end homes (bigger and more expensive) have worse cash flow than middle class or working class homes.Note a small multiplex or your 16+ unit will experience similar rent and property appreciation to your SFR and have better initial cash flow (it will be poor initial cash for San Diego but increase with the rent appreciation).To summarize, SFR are not the best buy n hold investment option in San Diego. 

And yeah, that's one variable I don't feel like I have the info to predict - and won't until I've watched how this auction plays out (and probably more after that to get a better understanding).   

What method would you use to find historical rates or predict the future property tax?

Stress-test your worst-case assumptions (other than the zombie apocalypse, which no one can predict).

I think it is reasonable to include fixed, predictable expenses, like taxes, in your proforma, but numbers like utilities and R&M are best estimated using historicals.At the end of the day, the buyer will do their own underwriting and come up with a number that works for them. 

I am not predicting anything....but as someone who is very active in the market know of over 4000 units for sale right now in the MF industry....brokers have told me they expect the same for 2019.   

Steve For full disclosure, I am personally in this space, before being in the space, I had a chance to review hundreds if not thousands of syndications and varying models of such.Critical items:Minimum Investment AmountAccredited or Non-accredited or (Mix)Sponsor Track RecordCritical impact items that will cause the value to increaseSponsor FeesSponsor Equity Participation (Always like to see skin in the game)Cost of capital and capital (capital stack structure)IRR (will predict timeline so time is X)Cash FlowCash on Cash %Hope this helps a little bit