San Jose and the Southern Bay Area were appealing but may be outside our current budget.

First, you always wind up being in for more than you budget, always, and two if you are cutting the capital requirement needed close then you can go under and default.Truth be told, to get through a deal and afford: Down Payment, Closing Costs, Holding Costs, Deposit for contractor, taxes, insurance. 

I had to scramble to cover the extra costs and it completely threw off my budget for the investment.Another red flag for me is delayed communication.

Monopoly is the one I'd think of, but even sitting down with them and making your own game where they learn basic finances and budgeting (and how to do math) will put them ahead of most people. 

Some people can push up the budget because they find some other value you are offering.

BRRRR:Flip: Yields a potential profit of $55-60k after capital gains, assuming rehab stays within budget.

While this may converge with a planning commission meeting for 2024 budgeting, if it is at least on the table for 2025, that would be exciting. 

What is my real budget here?

Always pad a percentage of your budget for overages.

The issue with that property was we didn't control the rehab under budget and timeframe.