Howdy Account ClosedI do not believe there is a crystal ball that will allow you to predict the degree of a swing in a boom or bust period.  

As to your client’s deal, if his forecast is predicting a 50% return over two years it’s very likely that either something was missed or the assumptions are overly aggressive.

However in terms of predicting “just how low” a downturn can go and making your adjustments now?

The hard part is predicting the top or bottom.

I know many people who predicted the crash of the economy in 2012, 2014 then 2016 ...

I'm a $25k/year licensed massage therapist, just hit my first year of solo business (so still inconsistent revenue) while gradually tapering off my main job (diminishing revenue), so I'm entering a phase of much less predictable income.

Maybe there are statistical models that predict C% loans getting paid off in full & sooner more frequently than D%, so Wall Street pays a premium for mortgage  backed securities with more of D% in it, which is passed onto the consumer in the form of D% being offered for merely 0.3 more than C%.

We are predicted to have strong future increases in population.

I would expect that if you were to poll 5 housing experts in CA and MN, the 5, 10, or 20 year numbers they come up with vary greatly, and I would have very little confidence that their numbers would predict what actually happens. 

For the last seven-plus years, experts have been predicting an increase.