Great insights, @Dan H.. A few further thoughts:
1-2) I do not know what more accurately means in this case. The appraisals are still coming in in general far below hands off costs.
Accurately meaning reflecting the increase in value the ADU will bring to the property. Unfortunately there is little conclusive data available here yet. I do agree with Dan that appraisals are more unpredictable, but would expect this to improve with increased activity & national recognition of ADUs in the lending world.
3) Not sure what is meant by stability. I do agree most brrrr do not add living space.
ADUs increase the rentable space/unit of a property and do not rely on an increase due to renovation alone. Depending on the scope of the BRRR, you could add space there, too, but point being ADUs always increase living space.
4) Do you think 6 to 7 months without income is good?
Certainly the timing is better on a quick rehab vs. a permitted ADU project. But characterizing the timing of an ADU project as all funds due for more than a year is not accurate, even with modular construction where more is paid earlier. You may of course have costs committed to the project though for longer.
6) Sell faster than what? A SFH? I seriously doubt that as there are many more owner occupied buyers than investor buyers.
Correct, sell faster than a comparable property without the ADU. Again, this will be anecdotal, with few data points available yet (especially not at the granularity that would be nice, e.g. what are the days on market, sell prices, buyer pool for SFH with ADU, 2-4 unit with ADU etc). However, nearly 20% of households are now multigenerational, and 73% of buyers are non-investors.
7-8) However, from an accounting perspective, there is no profit until the initial negative position can be recovered....Then add in that the ADU is getting financed at home purchase terms, someone else has done the work, ADU income will start month 1.
Fully agree that lack of leverage is a huge issue. My response about short term rentals was to point out that you can rent all ADUs in CA for periods of 31+ days (in some areas less), and that plenty of viable options exist outside of STR.
9) By the rules, adding 2 ADUs does not qualify for conventional financing... duplex with 2 ADUs that get the conventional financing (contrary to the rules) seem to comp with a quad.
Right, Fannie/Freddie currently allow for one ADU, though Freddie does allow one ADU for a duplex or triplex. Some good discussion on this topic on an appraisal blog as far as how this might develop over time.
10) Higher per unit returns than what?
Compared to a single family property without the ADU, e.g. Dan's previous contention about ADUs lowering value of the SFH. But no doubt, developing 10 units is cheaper than 2 units.
11) I have seen jurisdictions apply the rent control to the ADU on day 1 when it was converted from an existing space that is over 15 years old (such as an old garage).
Good intel, and as Dan points out throughout, there is much more variability with ADUs at this point in their development than other options. We also see this on the construction side, with varying interpretations of code - so a large part of our job is advocating for homeowners to push back on local jurisdictions requiring improvements that CA state law prohibits.