All Forum Posts by: Tony Kohnle

You asked how reliable an appraisal was way up thread. As a long time appraiser i can tell you that the answer depends on the experience and skill of the appraiser, the amount of research and support they did, and the the assumptions and givens of the assignment.

An AVM like Zillow or your tax assessment is like the blue book value, a statistical analysis of hundreds or thousands of sales that may be fairly accurate is depending on how conforming your property is, clean the data is, and details of the algorithm (Taxes values in my area will be based on 2013 values until the next reassessment in 2020. 

Drive by's and traditional appraisals are generally more accurate as they look at the subject and recent comparable sales, but still rely on the available data. If I drive by a house with a freshly rehabbed exterior I would make the assumption that the interior is in similar shape and value it using the Good condition sales. Some times I would go back to those and find that the interiors were not updated, or in a few cases, trashed or even gutted. in that case my prior valuation was technically correct, but not close to the real value. Even with an interior inspections there are assumptions there is no hidden damage (termites, bad wiring, etc) or legal issues (clouded title, etc) that could effect value. That is why lenders require home inspections and Title insurance.

The more unique a property is, or more accurately, in situations where the sales differ significantly from the subject, the more skill the appraiser needs to have to accurately chose the most comparable sales and adjust them for the differences. The classic example is how much does a pool contribute to value? It will be different in a $100,000 house and a $500,000 house, and different if its in Green Bay or Miami.

I think you hit the nail on the head with both your answers @Jeffrey Stasz. If they don't want to sell right now they don't want to sell. move on and keep your business moving. Having said that, if the property really has potential, keep the connection alive and work at it. I hope your having success with that one we talked about a while back.

Funny story from the other side shows it is possible to go to far. My wife gets a birthday card every year from a guy we bought a car from 20 years ago. He was the "we have to check with my manager" guy so we actually only dealt with him for about ten minutes. The first couple years we thought, hey, he's good and professional, we could go back there, but after moving to different cities and even states, it just becomes obvious its an automated tickle file and there is no real thought behind it.

I’m glad you were able to find and groom a great general contractor, it can often be tough to find partners you click with, but the results can be amazing when you do.

Ok, one more post tonight,

I, know it can be a pain to move a business @James Wise, but at least they didn't have to move furniture or get there mail forwarded. 

Most memorable low end experience there? having somebody steel the hose bib off a boarded up foreclosure while I was inside. High end?  probably the 80 acre estate just outside of Hunting Valley with the marble  Pool and Restaurant sized walk in refrigerator in the kitchen. It also had a mile of 11 Inch/gage track run around the property for the model train fan owner and his guests to ride around on.

I think I have derailed your Charleston House thread with enough Cleveland comments, I think i'll go to sleep now and let somebody else bring it back on course.

I've had the fortune too live in both metro areas, and they both have positives and negatives, and I've seen stunningly beautiful properties and stunningly bad ones in each city. 

The difference between the two cities (price wise) is 40 people a day moving in vs people moving out. 

I thought you would understand @James Wise.

I don't know, I thought I saw quite a few Pro's hooking up with johns on the East Cleveland streets, There are definitely some Ex-Cons Walking around too....

P.S.  I miss going to see the Browns play, they where fun when I was a kid, but crappy the whole time I lived there. I keep hoping they will turn it around soon, but haven't put any money on it in a while.

No Disrespect meant to You and the old City  @James Wise. 

I'm sure you know you would rather own in Ohio City than In the City of East Cleveland. 

@Jay Hinrichs,

Yeah, I caught that you where Joking a bit. I tend to be with you, and feel pretty strongly about it too.

I understand that cash flowing in is important and cash flowing out is bad, but I also know the real "passive" money is made on the underlying land going up in value. I knew it before I moved to The Cleveland area but that sure reinforced that there is little safety and less money, in no or negative growth areas, even if Cash flows start out good.