All Forum Posts by: Tom Juhn

Here is my point:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/10/some-smart-money-is-already-exiting-the-single-family-rental-landgrab.html

I realize the real estate sector is just one sector of many. There were some investors that saw the writing on the wall with the r.e. bubble forming so they started cashing out. They were building cash reserves to pounce when the crash came. They then moved into rentals knowing rentals were going to get hot because buyers turned into renters. My questions is what is next? Hold onto rentals until the buyer markets get hot again? I would think at that point interest rates would be much higher than where they are now. So seller financing on the properties you are selling? This way you are earning a higher rate. And the cycle starts all over again.

Once these big boys figure out it not as easy as it looks, I will be there with a big pot of cash buying them to unwind their positions. Cash is and will be king.

Brian,

I could not agree with you more. I read deals people are doing on this forum and others and just seem impossible. If I do those kind of "deals" in my area, I would have to where riot gear to inspect it.

Once again, it reminds me of the internet boom days where people were bragging about how much money everyone was making by throwing a dart at the stock listings, and we know how that turned out.

It seems the discussions I have been in lately has been with individuals asking how they can start investing in real estate. They have heard all they have to is put 25% down, put a for rent sign out and collect. That their friend/uncle/brother are doing it and they are making money. These people should not be investing in properties. They have no clue.

In addition, I have read articles where huge hedge funds are starting to invest in sfh and mf by purchasing thousands of them at one time.

These scenarios remind me the days of the internet stock bubble. You could not go anywhere without hearing people talking about how much money they are making buying net stocks. People would EXPECT returns of 20-30 a year on their stocks.

Are these good contrarian indicators that markets are overheated and time to cash out?

I had a situation where I wanted to sell the property when my "partner" did not. I threatened him with a partition lawsuit to sell it. Any owner of the property can force the sale as the first right of refusal goes to the other owners. Nobody can make own a building when you do not want to own it.

I have been reading about note buying and have been interested in investing. The problem is I really do not know where to start or get more information. Everywhere I look they want to sell books or mentoring programs for $1000's. Is there a good resource to learn or a good marketplace to purchase notes?

This is more of a theory question. In stock investing there is an investment strategy called sector investing. The theory goes as the economy moves from expansion to contraction and back again, there are certain sectors of the market you need to be in, e.g. energy, consumer staples, tech, chemicals.

My question is does real estate work the same way. Are there times you should be in note buying or multifamily? Are there other times you should be in cash or flipping?

For example, if you felt in 2006-2008 that a bubble was forming, other than cashing out and sit in cash, could you have been investing elsewhere in real estate?

I was looking into Peer to Peer lending. Has anyone tried this sites? What was your experience?

This is a going to be the beginning of the next real estate bubble.