@Derek Liebhauser - I've posted similar topics on here a couple times but never got much interest. I have some strong opinions about this.
I think there are five different people in every market that defines the supply/demand.1: Savvy Investor,2: Non-Savvy Investor, 3: Savvy homeowner, 4: Non-Savvy homeowner with money, 5: Non-Savvy homeowner without money.
As interest rates rise, savvy investors recalculate there expected return and redefine the purchase price as needing to be lower. This prices them out of the market. Non-savvy investors (flippers, wholesalers) keep buying because they only look at ARVs that price based on today's expected sale not a future where interest rates affect affordability. Savvy homeowners also understand the effect of interest rates and the affect of affordability. These could be a net neutral to the market since they have to sell and buy concurrently which could price them out of selling because they refinanced recently and do not want to pay the extra interest (people downsizing and upsizing). Non-Savvy homeowners with money will just buy regardless and do not consider interest rates. Non-Savvy homeowners without money will be priced out because the interest rate will affect their debt to equity ratios.
As interest rates rise, Savvy investors start to exit the market (I'm not planning to buy for a few years or until market forces change and I own 21 properties). Non-Savvy homeowners without money are also priced out as they can no longer afford the same property they were looking for a few months ago. With that said, FOMO happens heavy for Savvy homeowners and Non-Savvy homeowners with money as they think, If I do not buy now, I may never be able to afford a property again since interest rates are rising. Non-savvy investors are always buying and do not realize they could get burned since the end buyer needs a mortgage to purchase the property.
From this, the initial increase in interest rates could lead to an increase in housing prices as people rush for the last chance to pick up a property before interest rates get even higher. After that FOMO wears off, prices do not decrease until the supply picks up. This will happen as people put property on the market for sale but assume the crazy high prices are what the market conditions are.
As inventory levels start to increase, the owner's that really need to sell will start to capitulate and reduce prices. If inventory levels continue increasing, the market will continue to go down until there is a new stable point on the supply/demand curve.
Ultimately, real estate should be evaluated at something like the CAP rate minus the prevailing interest rate. As interest rates rise, CAP rates should start to go up as well so that the investor can make the profit on the property.
With all this said, people are emotional when selling as well. People that think, if I had only sold 6 months ago may ultimately decide to pull the property from the market in lieu of "losing" that additional income. This can cause a market to stay elevated more than you would expect until they eventually need to sell or reconsider those emotional reactions.