Looking at ITB which trades @ $24.50. How many puts would you have to buy to cover every $100K of your project? Say you are worried about a 10% r/e decline ($10K or 4,100 etf shares).
Your choice is July 2014 or Jan. 2015 expirations for your nine-month project.
The July 25 Puts are $2.35 (cost you $9,600).
- If ITB closes at $22 on July expiration your options are worth $3.00 ($12,300). You net only $2,700 and you are assuming your project is worth $10K less. Net loss $7300.
- If ITB is at $25 your options are worthless costing you net loss $9,600.
- if ITB is at $27 your options are worthless and hopefully your project is worth 10% more than expected (wash). Net break even.
What about deeper in-the-money puts? Let's go up to July 28 puts at $4.35 ($17,835).
- If ITB closes at $22 in July those puts would be worth $6 (24,600) netting you only $6765. Property woth $10K less. Net loss $3,235.
- If ITB is still at $25 those puts are worth $3 (12,300) costing you $5,535. property still at @ $100k. Net loss $5,535.
- If ITB closes at $27 (10% higher) they are worth $1 ($4100) costing you $13,735. Property worth $110k. Net loss $3,735.
As you can see in my examples the cost of the insurance is expensive but deeper might be the way to go.
The last scenario I can think of is a ratio:
Sell 4,000 July 25 Calls for $1.85 ($7,400); Buy 4,900July 23 puts for 1.50 ($7,350) (costing you nothing)
- If ITB closes at $22 in July those puts would be worth $1 ($4,900). Property worth $10k less. Net loss $5,100.
-If ITB closes at $23-25 those puts & calls are worthless.
- If ITB closes at $27 in July those calls would be worth $2 costing you $8K to buy back, however, your project is hopefully worth $10k more. Net gain $2K.
- If ITB closes at $30 in July those calls would be worth $5 costing you $20K to buy back, however, your project is hopefully worth $20k more.
We've also made some HUGE assumptions here incl. @4000 shares being adequate protection, that ITB will move in step with your r/e market, that you don't cover the options early, that July strikes are best way to go (Jan. 2015 might be better), etc. As you can see, the strikes you use will depend on where you think the market is likely to land. However, I think you have to assume market will stay about the same or go up; otherwise, why would you take on the project to begin with? In the end, I think its too expensive and presumptuous to offset market risk like this. You also cap/hinder upside which is the reason we do real estate, no?