Originally posted by Jon Holdman:
Re-selling an REO property for a higher value is entirely possible. How long it takes will depend on entirely on the market in your specific neighborhood. I've seen it done in a matter of months in some neighborhoods.
I'm pretty doubtful you can truly buy something at $120K that has an ARV of $300K unless it needs a ton of work. For flipping, apply the 70% rule. Buy at 70% of ARV, less fixup, and you'll make a profit of 10-15% of ARV. So, for a $300K house, 70% would be $210K. Subtract off the fixup, and that's what you can pay to get a $45K (if things go well) to $30K (more realistically) profit. If you need, say $30K in fixup, you could pay $180K.
If you really could pay $120, you can tack that $60K difference onto the profit. A $150K profit is out of the realm of possibility, even if absolutely no work is needed.
If work is minimal, its harder to justify a big jump up in value, so it has to set (i.e., season) longer before a lender will accept a new value.
Paying $120K (plus fixup) for a $1000 rental will suck cash out of your pocket. Read in the Rental Property forum before buying any rentals.
The speaker at the Rich Dad Poor Dad seminar kept boasting about how she's purchasing $120k REO duplexes for $20k and $300k REO properties for $120-150k, saying that it was an "ok" deal, not "great," and claimed those numbers are easily attainable. Puffery perhaps? She said they're not even fixer uppers, just minor repairs.
Ok, so hypothetically, say I can get a property for $210k. So at 7% and 30 years:
Mortgage: $1397
Desired cash flow: $200
Rent: $2661 [(1397+200)/.6]
Expenses: $665 (2661*.4)
I never thought about looking at the numbers that way because my boss was telling me about how he is leasing a $300k house for only a couple hundred over the mortgage payment amount so if he were to actually buy one, with all the other payments (insurance, etc.) he would actually be in the hole.
But is a $2661 rent relatively attainable in this market? It would seem to be that the duplex would be able to generate the same cash flow with much less money and cheaper rent would attract more tenants, I would just miss out on the capital gain of eventually selling the property at market value.
If I can get a duplex for $70k (100k*.7), then at 7% for 30 years:
Mortgage: $465
Desired cash flow: $200
Total rents: $1108 [(465+200)/.6]
Expenses: $443 (1108*.4)
So worked out on paper, both properties can theoretically generate the same cash flow, unless my rent numbers for the duplex are too optimistic. But the $300k is a beautiful property and is sitting in my neighborhood, a very nice one, and the duplex is a bit on the run down side.
In your opinion, which would you say is a better deal?
Thanks for the help, it is greatly appreciated.