Phew - lots of posts on this one. (Sorry if I repeat anything) Ive been absorbing everything possible the past couple months - webinars, podcasts, articles, interviews, boots on ground stories. Not to shape my own sentiment, but just to gauge sentiment. And I agree that it's kind of all over the map - from doomers to boomers (as in economic boomers not baby boomers, although some are both :)
Here's my 2 cents, based on info and intuition. Too much economic theory can weigh you down. Human psychology/behavior has to be a big part of what you think will happen. Because consumer and investor confidence is what ends a recessions, not economic theory.
Unemployment? This isn't the last crash. This is a temporary hiccup. Most of the layoffs have been restaurant and small biz retail workers, not the higher salary middle-management home owners from 08/09. Its mostly renters this time. And many if not most are getting paid more in unemployment pay than they got working their jobs. (Yes, many people haven't got their UE pay yet. But will soon when states catch up). And they don't have to pay rent, they can't be evicted anytime soon, and they know it. And they have been cooped up in their houses for weeks. And things are starting to open. Coinciding with summer. Can you say pent up consumer spending? So if unemployment stays strong, it will stay artificially strong until the UE runs out (namely the Gov'ts weekly $600). If anything there might in fact be a retail/restaurant worker shortage very soon. Im not worried about the high unemployment number.
Forbearances? People are taking advantage of it. Not in a bad way, but because its there. Again, judging by all the renters that actually DID pay in Apr/May, I don't feel like the homeowners doing forbearances are necessarily in trouble - unlike the 08/09 crash. Back then middle-managers had cash back refi'd their ARM's 3 times in a row and spent the money on vacations and jet skis. Then lost their jobs. I think the legit need forebearances happening now are likely small biz owners who didn't get any PPP. They are in a real bind. But I also think many of the forbearances are in the "because we can" category. In fact having been through the last crash, forbearance wasn't really a thing. It was loan modifications. And you had to jump through many hoops. And your credit got dinged. This time, thanks to the CARES act, banks are mandated to make it extremely easy for people to skip 3 months of house payments without any credit ding. Vastly different. I don't see too many forbearances going 6 months. I think banks are going to put the kibosh on that.
Foreclosures? Yeah, technically the entire 3 month forbearance period is due with 4th month's payment. Yeah a recipe for foreclosures. But banks are going to allow people to payback the forbearance period for 12-24 months. OR loan modifications. Likely streamlined by goverment mandates. Esp since lessons were learned from the crash. So if anyone forecloses, it's because they can't afford the additional 1/12 or 1/24th tacked onto their payment, or for some reason just can't qualify for a loan mod. So I'm not seeing a high volume of foreclosures coming out of this. Maybe some crappy credit scores, but not a lot of foreclosures (relative to 08/09)
So i guess I'm a boomer not a doomer. With one giant caveat. If people are careless and there's a 2nd virus wave in Fall - all bets are off.