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All Forum Posts by: Steven S.

Steven S. has started 6 posts and replied 112 times.

Post: Using a predictive model to find undervalued properties.

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58
Quote from @Dean Romero:

Hi guys, I have been following your conversation and I was wondering if you have ever put together a model (either MLS or Redfin) that looks at homes that have been sold/re-sold within an 18mo period? I am looking for properties that have been flipped and attempting to gauge the original vs. flipped price and bounce that against the interior changes made as part of the rehab.

Thanks!

 Finding homes flipped in the last 18 months would yield developers/investors in the area (potential buyers for your under contract or owned distressed property). It's not useful as a developer trying to value things (just run comps), it's most useful to a wholesaler trying to find buyers for their 'locked-up' properties. I think PropStream has a 'recently flipped' toggle if that's what you're after.

Whether you look at flips from developers or newly renovated properties from owners, the source of the flipped/renovated house doesn't matter for determining value. Just take closely matching renovated comps, and closely matching as-is comps, to make sure you are buying for the right price, and are estimating dispo at or just below the other top comps.

No 'model' will adjust value based on interior changes automatically, you'll have to draw up your own model to check/account for these things, but at the end of the day it's a lot more efficient to just run comps and put closely matching, similar comps into your spreadsheet model like I do above. Then just build to match the top-comps quality/finishes/appliances, etc.

Post: Biggerpockets and AI

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58
Quote from @Henry Clark:
Quote from @Steven S.:

 https://chatgpt.com/share/67e35b44-352c-800b-b9d8-79e44e703c...

@Henry Clark So do you see how ChatGPT can utilize BP posts to answer your Q's? It's really simple and takes <30 seconds!

But you might be getting confused... Carlos said "But it's good if BP started to have its own AI LLM feature" and that is what I am responding to. It's actually stupid for BP to make their own chatbot, as Carlos was requesting, because it's a waste of time & resources. The large AI companies already provide this.

That example is great.   Now forget what both of you said.   How does BP set up and automate a response on their forum posts.  Move the conversation past you two and to BP.   People are lazy.  How do you automate it as part of their BP post?

@Henry Clark Sure, after thinking about it:

1. When composing a post (in the editor), have an automation to take the currently written content every 15 seconds, and send it to an AI with a system prompt like:

"Analyze the content below into summarized search terms and then check only bigger pockets forum posts from biggerpockets.com that you see on search results, and return me the top 5 most similar most recent posts. If there's nothing similar, you should only output "NO_MATCHES".   {USER_POST}".

If NO_MATCHES is returned, then loop again and try in 15s.

When matches are found, you can display these similar posts with the citation tags for sources (just like in the ChatGPT example), hover over sentences to see different posts & provide links to posts at the bottom of the editor.

This will allow those basic posts to be answered immediately, before they even get done writing their post.


2. Create a 'BP Expert' bot that identifies those surface-level posts or things that have a straightforward answer, and comments "This post has been identified as basic so I'll try to answer it for you. XYZ explanation. 123 sources." This will answer those basic posts or questions, and point them towards the other posts/sources.

This bot would also apply "Beginner", "Intermediate", and "Expert" tags (with their own colors) to each post below the title of each post so people could easily know what level each post is at. Some people like only expert level discussions, some only beginner, etc.


These two solutions avoid excessive API cost since it's not like a general chatbot anyone can just type things into, whilst still providing a lot of value to the community from beginners to experts. BP Pro members (subscription fee accounts) could get access to a chatbot or something that has custom system prompting/memory trained on BP posts (obviously with usage limits, I would make it like 50% profitable, i.e. charging 1.5x the cost of the API tokens they use).

I could think of more but I don't get paid to do this for BP lol

Post: Biggerpockets and AI

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

 https://chatgpt.com/share/67e35b44-352c-800b-b9d8-79e44e703c...

@Henry Clark So do you see how ChatGPT can utilize BP posts to answer your Q's? It's really simple and takes <30 seconds!

But you might be getting confused... Carlos said "But it's good if BP started to have its own AI LLM feature" and that is what I am responding to. It's actually stupid for BP to make their own chatbot, as Carlos was requesting, because it's a waste of time & resources. The large AI companies already provide this.

Post: Biggerpockets and AI

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

@Carlos Ptriawan And Carlos, your question indicates a huge gap of understanding. You want BP to rent or run their own servers to host a chatbot like OpenAI? LOL

There is no need for them to train a custom model... BP posts are indexed on Google/search engines, and AI models are trained on these things by default. Even if they weren't, just enable a web-search and say check BP, and it will gather all relevant posts and provide a summary based on them. Don't you remember our conversations surrounding AI and how much of a fail they are and will be for REI analysis and decisions?

Post: Biggerpockets and AI

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58
Quote from @Aaron Breckenridge:

@Carlos Ptriawan thread summarization is actually a use case we studied, but haven't had a chance to really explore further. That's a heckuva lot cheaper than a chatbot. All I can say is stay tuned.


Following up on this, BP should have drilled-down market stats & ARV estimates like these nation-wide!

Are you hiring? lol

Post: AI Solutions to real estate business

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

@Tahmid Mia Automated underwriting tools and market analysis tools are the key to making lots of quick and reliable decisions, allowing you to spend your time doing things that actually matter instead of wasting time on pointless 'deals' you'll come across.

I wrote my own suite of tools for California, contact me if you're interested in trying them.

For example, if you know how to code, you can try out your own ARV algorithms on runcomps.dev - I have a LOT of experience on the data/analytics side of things. My profile also has plenty of posts showing what I am talking about :)

Post: Interested in coding up a home-value algo? See how accurate you can get

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

I made a community-based algo sharing site, and someone already got over 96% accuracy on the properties this week, in 53 lines of JavaScript!

If anyone else is interested, you can test, refine, and get your home-value algorithms ranked weekly (for free) at: runcomps.dev

Lowers the barrier to entry to just coming up with an algo rather than building the entire db and back-end for it all to work on :)

Post: Seller won’t return EM

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

lmao good read! Hope you all can resolve it

Post: Calculating ARV and the 70% rule

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58
Quote from @Steven S.:

The % of ARV varies by market/area. I'm in Los Angeles, and the most I can pay on flips is typically 60-65%.

You want to get recently sold comps to value the property, it's the best way to be sure of the value. I usually use Redfin, but Canada isn't supported. Checked Zillow, you are right, only a few places have results in Canada. Perhaps there is a realtor association that has this information? Out here we call it the MLS, Multiple Listing Service. I'd try to call a few agents and see if they can run sold comps.

Once you have access to sold homes, there's nothing to get caught up on. Just go through them, select the renovated/closely matching ones, and enter them into a model.

Here's my fix & flip model, you can see the comps entered and some quick stats below them:

Then I use that comp data to adjust the Sale Price in the model to what I estimate it will be (double check the resale $/sf is in-line with the comps), then adjust the purchase price until I hit my desired return level. 

Good luck!

This property I previously modeled is now active for $1.789M, if you check the model I was at $1.75M. Models are the way to go!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8112-Airlane-Ave-90045...

Post: Looking for Real Estate Investors to Test New Analysis Software 🚀

Steven S.Posted
  • Specialist
  • LA & Ventura
  • Posts 119
  • Votes 58

I'm interested! Will it work for properties in Southern California? It has to beat app.runcomps.org though, that's what I'm using now.

Let me know what ARV estimates you get for the following properties: