Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @David Song:
@Greg R.
Housing prices will always go up. Buy anytime. - bigger pockets.com
Reality: numerous REI lost their life savings in 2009 and maybe 2022. Over leveraging, insufficient reserve, short term loan with balloon payment, etc.
Flippers bought in Q1 2022 will learn the lesson now. Many of them are losing their shirt. None will tell you publicly.
The price decline started in April 2022, and has been declining for the last 4 months. The bottom has not been reached yet. This is nationwide, from CA to Texas, everywhere.
Couldn't agree more. There seems to be a fantasy land that some folks are living in where prices never go down, and no matter the conditions - it's always the right time to buy. And you're right, the people who've lost everything from the flips they bought in Q1 are awfully quiet right now. Too much ego/ pride to come on BP forms and expose their foolishness.
Fun topic @Greg R.
: The real concern is layoffs, evictions and inflation. Will that affect housing prices? Sure, but it's sneaky. It walks up behind you and bites you in the butt.
And . . . it doesn't happen all at once. It wil take a year to clear out the existing "hidden inventory" of foreclosures now that foreclosures are starting up again. But with rents going so high, so fast, expect a lot of evictions coming in a tidal wave over the next 6 months.
Then what? With all of these people having a recent eviction on their record, who is going to rent to them?
That problem hasn't been solved, because it hasn't presented itself yet, but like the sun rising tomorrow, it's on it's way.
I agree, evictions will definitely be a problem. Depending on which state you're looking at and what the political landscape looks like in the next couple years we may see another massive bailout for renters and little to no help for landlords. As companies continue to hammered in the private & public sectors, mass layoffs and bankruptcies will continue to accelerate. Unemployment rates (the bogus calcs are for another time) are a lagging indicator so we will see this pick up soon enough. Fed policy has fueled a lot of malinvestment and much of the debt is adjustable. Further, valuations will get crushed with rates going up and earnings going down and I don't think folks understand the magnitude of the corporate debt problem and how it will impact jobs and wages.
