Originally posted by @David Grabiner:
If you invested 120K every year plus all cash flow from your investments and you were able to get a 13% cash on cash return your yearly cash flow at the end of 10 years would be $287,348. which just abouts equals 24K per month.
Can you get 13% cash on cash return? If yes then you should be able to hit this goal in 10 years. I aim for at least 20% cash on cash return so I think that 13% should be doable.
What about taxes?
If you pay 10% of your annual profits in taxes after depreciation, the COC would need to be 14.4%. As your income grows and you move into a higher tax bracket, taxes will put more pressure on your growth rate. I think a 16% COC will get you there.
But what about capital deployment inefficiencies?
The challenge is in establishing that constant deal flow of 16% COC that also allows you to deploy all your capital. If you count the inefficiencies of deal flow & capital deployment, you'll be forced to achieve a 20%+ COC to make up the difference.
Example:
You deploy your first 120k and yield a nice 15% COC, now you have 16.2k after taxes and another 120k saved. Now you have to find a deal that needs 136.2k with a minimum COC of 15% return. This deal will likely not be a cash deal as 15%+ cap rate properties are not abundant, so you're looking for a 545k property with 25% down or multiple smaller properties. Let's say you find one and end up with 18.4k after taxes. Now you have 16.2k from your 1st property, 18.4k from your 2nd property, and another 120k saved. Now you have 154.6k to deploy into a deal with a minimum COC of 15%. That's a 618k property. The year after you need to find a 700k property, then an 800k property, and then a 900k property and so forth. As your returns grow this problem only becomes bigger.
If 15% returns were possible in RE any day of the week, Wall St would be buying rentals.