Long Post Alert: Market Update followed by some Food for Thought.
Another Central WI guy here:). Seeing houses in the mid-upper price range and beyond ($500k+ for around here) hang around the market a bit longer and/or reduce listing price in $25k increments. Single family homes priced below that are generally moving quick still. Duplexes and small multifamily are moving quick, with rents increasing significantly across all asset quality classes (mostly B/C product).
We are very short on rental housing (and subsequently storage) as like previously mentioned about Stevens Point, GB/Fox Valley has a number of strong (and economically resilient) companies and industries that are hiring. We have a labor shortage due to folks moving south and west, so those of us here are experiencing strong wage gains for those workers with exceptional (coastal) talent.
The market can’t get any hotter, so what could make it worse (other than natural deceleration due to rising rates)?
1) I think the comment above about Wall Street building/buying neighborhoods of SFRs is a topic that we need to consider. Sure the supply/demand chart is out of whack now, but we saw Wall St fool us before, and this is how they could do it again. When the big guys exit, they RUN out of the building and pull the fire alarm on their way out.
For example, we all like to talk about how lending standards are different this time around, but we're not talking about institutional ownership entering the SFR market and how that has changed over the past few decades (would LOVE to see the data if someone has it).
What if the risk adjusted return profile changes such that Wall St is better off taking gains (selling houses), returning capital to shareholders, and moving to the new shiny fixed income product that is benefiting from rising rates?
Will Wall Street sell houses by the dozens/hundreds due to a change in their investment appetite? I don’t know, but would be good for us to keep an eye out for data on this as this asset class matures over the next few years.
2) I see a number of investors who have grown via 80-85% cash out refi leverage. Of course this is a good strategy to grow the portfolio, but I don’t see the liquidity I would expect for guys maxing leverage on every property.
Will excessive leverage from small investors bring down the market? Probably not, but this may be a moment to “pause for poise” and rebuild some liquidity if reserves are stretched. I’d rather have a tight market continue than see portfolio sales due to your lender remargining you at a 7.5% rate when your balloon comes due.
As for me, I’m new(ish) to my market, so finally starting to get some decent looks now that I’ve established some relationships.
Buy good dirt, have multiple strategies, and keep some liquidity.