@Kevin E. I think that I've decided to set aside the analysis for now and am going to just go with the SD IRA. If nothing else, it will keep me from spending the profits! Also, I have to admit that I actually laughed out loud at the marriage comment. My wife agrees that that is a very important consideration.
I did go talk to my accountant about this. He told me that my marginal tax rate is 25% so anything that I distribute is going to cost me at least 35%...and likely more. I think that the actual amount you will lose to taxes up front is key to the calculation, as is the difference is tax rates now vs. when you use the money in retirement. Personally I'd like to be in a higher tax bracket when I retire than I am in now, but....eh....who knows?
For me, right now, I'm engaging with some local real estate agents to begin my search for our first deal rather than continuing with my analysis of the "best" way to proceed. My action plan is to:
1. provide my criteria to a few agents and start looking at properties
2. figure out which company to use for self-directed ira
3. start talking to property management companies
I'm still not convinced that investing inside an IRA is a good deal (stupid UDFI) but I'd rather start now rather than figure out what sort of business to start to justify a solo 401k...and since I can't figure out the numbers that would lead me to choose definitively disbursement vs. sd-ira, I'm going to just get started with what seems to be the safest choice at this time.