All Forum Posts by: Shane C.

Thanks @Charles Morgan!

@Jason Hirko Thank you! I'm heading down that way for family reasons - excited to make the move!

@Jacob Firnekas Thanks for the advice, I'll check them out. Sent you a PM!

@Yasir Einaudi I appreciate the offer, I'll definitely take you up on it.

@Eduardo Sanabria Thank you!

@Steven Bishop Thanks for your response, I came across the El Paso Investors Club and the local REIA online. Are there any others you'd recommend I look into?

Hello everyone,

My name is Shane Counts, I'm a Pittsburgh native, I've moved around for the last 12-13 years but will be settling down in El Paso in May 2019!

I was in the military, moved into a career in technology and healthcare and have recently transitioned into management consulting.

I'm interested in investing in long term buy and hold 2-4 unit properties, possibly shifting to small apartment complexes in time but for now my goals are to 1.) buy 2-4 properties a year to diversify my investments in a vehicle that will outperform the S&P and 2.) have a good mix of appreciating and cash flow assets

I found Bigger Pockets by listening to Paula Pant's podcast, Afford anything but not everything. 

I've been a member of B&P for about a year now and own one single family and one duplex in Pittsburgh. 

I look forward to getting to know members of the community and hopefully meeting up with a few in the El Paso area!

All the best,

Shane

Hey BP,

I just closed on my first deal. I bought the property in cash through my LLC and have a cash budget for renovations. The after repair value should surpass what I put into it by about $20k or so. I'm currently looking to secure delayed financing (or just refinance) based off of the ARV. The first three local banks I spoke to either only finance based on purchase and renovation cost or have a 2 year seasoning requirement to refinance on appraisal.

Does anyone have a recommendation for a specific credit union or bank that refinances commercial loans based on ARV off the bat, or with a 6 month seasoning?

Thanks!

Shane

@Trevor Ewen That's exactly the kind of data-driven approach I was talking about. Thanks for sharing!

@Jason L.

@Jason L. I am an R user, that looks like a terrific resource to use, I'll definitely check it out. Thank you!

@Omar Khan @Sean T. @Trevor Ewen Thanks for posting!

The (current)  goal is to determine which properties are likely to be listed on the market in my county due to variables like days since last sale, neighborhood, use of property, age of property, etc. which is all available from the county's website. I have a target segment (2-4 family units, $50-$300k, grade C+ through B+ in certain "good neighborhoods"). I have data from 2016-2017 with 575k observations to train and was hoping to use the assessment data from 2018 to test. I'm not sure if there will be any significance to any of the findings, but even if it were 5-10% more accurate than current methods it might be useful. I was going to start with either a logistic regression or naive bayes since most of the variables are categorical and the dependent variable is binary but a decision tree might be the way to go.

I was also thinking of trying to tie in life events (birth, birth +17 years, marriage, divorce, credit card default, tax lien, etc) to the model but there are substantial hurdles: access to data, reliability, scraping and\or text mining, having a dynamic stream, accurately tying the life event to the right person\household, etc.

My actual end goal is to approach deal-finding in a data-driven way, my current thought process on how to achieve that goal may not be correct, and I'm more than willing to adjust, but I'm thinking there must be a more analytical approach than relying on word of mouth or MLS emails.

Trevor, what was your goal when scraping properties near military bases? How did it turn out?

Omar and Sean, have you attempted anything similar or do you have any advice on better methods?

Hey everyone,

Is anyone else using predictive analytics in their deal-finding efforts? I'm currently attempting to construct a model to predict which off-market properties are likely to list in my county. I'd love to chat about methods and data sources with anyone interested. 

Best,

Shane

Thanks again all, I'm really looking forward to diving into the BP community and attending the investor meet ups starting next month!