@Chris Mason
In my understanding you described two(2) extremes of Market Conditions in terms of percentage of financing compared to purchase prices.
1) The "FHA Market" - or Low Down Payment Market?
-Majority of FTHB will use an FHA Loan (3.5% Down), therefore purchase prices are ~96.5% of loan amounts and only lenders can afford to "purchase" homes (~96.5% of price).
-"Strategic Default" tends to cause a depression in home values, therefore markets of lower appreciation, but higher cashflow due to low money down.
-A conventional down payment of 25% in this market can be equal to that of a cash offer and could lead to a discounted purchase price.
2) The High Down Payment Market -Name?
-Majority of FTHB or HB will put up a high down payment or all cash offer, therefore purchase prices are not the same (~96.5%) as loan amounts and lenders are not "purchasing" homes.
"Strategic Default" is not a factor nor implemented due to the high amount of initial equity of the buyer, therefore the market has higher appreciation, but lower cashflow short term due to higher money down. Cashflow may increase in future either when the loan is paid off or higher appreciation leads to higher rent.
-Real Estate Agents accept only a certain, higher down payment of X%; where X is subject to the experience and success of the Agent, therefore offers that fit this criteria are accepted.
If I understood correctly, then my initial logic of a high amount of cash offers driving purchase prices up through competition and causing a Bay Area Bubble Burst is flawed due to the ability of buyers to not go into "Strategic Default" through a higher down payment or even an all cash offer. Since the majority of offers are cash offers, it is appropriate to suggest that majority of buyers are financially stable and can afford the property they purchased and will not go into default therefore not causing a depression in home values and not Bursting the Bubble.
The context of these two extreme markets, if I understood correctly, can now help me frame the analysis of the Bay Area Markets and choose as strategy that is appropriate for my market of choice.
Thanks for your Time and Response,
Sergio Rodriguez