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All Forum Posts by: Charlie McKenzie

Charlie McKenzie has started 4 posts and replied 12 times.

Post: The 2% Rule doesn't work 50% of the time

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

Here is an article that I found interesting in the WSJ. One of the things that I found particularly frightening was the the little tidbit "More landlords are expected to follow suit. Of the $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due by the end of 2014, roughly 52% is attached to properties that are underwater, according to debt-analysis company Trepp LLC. Also, as the economy recovery sputters, owners of struggling properties are realizing that they aren't going to get rescued anytime soon by an increase in value." Here is a link to the entire article. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449803607666216.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_business If these big properties get foreclosed and there are lots of job losses b/c of it. Then what is going to happen to our economy?

Post: The other side of Foreclosure

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

I finally received all the info from my buddy. As I suspected he is in second position on the property. How much he is owed is open for debate because the note that he wrote up is a little vague. On the high end he could be entitled to $100k on the low end $15k. Just to throw a wrinkle in things his medical problem has turned out to be a stage four cancer. He is going to fly into the US to have treatment and wants to use this foreclosure to keep his mind off of cancer while he receives treatment. Since he is in second position he will need to pay off the first in order to foreclose. I haven't seen a copy of the first mortgage but my buddy says that it is for $250k. The property is probably worth $400k to $500k. In order to foreclose he will need to sell his boat (its also his home) to pay off the first. If he does that he will have a the potential to make $100k above the $100k he is owed. I suggested to him that it might be best to start the process of foreclosure and then renegotiate the terms of the second mortgage. He agreed.

Post: The 2% Rule doesn't work 50% of the time

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

Mike: You have a great last name.LOL I like the impediment to growth rule because it provides the greatest chance for appreciation. Because of the rule I wouldn't have invested in Phoenix, That has cost me some good investments but also saved me from mistakes.
Edwin: There are lots of ways to create value in RE. The key is to find one that works for the area you are in at that particular time.
Charles: That is definitley the key. Until lately I have invested in RE as a sideline to with the payoff being five to ten years down the road.
Vikram: Name brand Cities are cities that show up on large scale maps with dots. I also like a diversified economy. I was just getting out of high school in the 80's so I don't know where I would have invested but since I lived in San Francisco I imagine it would have been there.

Post: The 2% Rule doesn't work 50% of the time

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

Ok I have acquired over 120 units of rental property and have used the following rules: 1) Purchase properties in areas that have a geographic Impediment to growth. 2) Don't purchase a property that you wouldn't be willing to live in. 3) Make sure it cash flows when you buy it. Because of the economic downturn of the last couple of years I have added a couple of more rules 4) Only buy in name brand cities 5) only buy properties for less then replacement cost.

Now for the heresy part. I use a 1% rule. I'm not saying this is the only way to make money but it has worked for me.

Let me explain the rules a little: 1) and 2) work hand in hand. A geographic impediment to growth is something like an ocean, a lake, a mountain, a river. The best is a Peninsula. San Francisco is a good example of this. As far as rule number two goes there are two different axioms that go along with this. First off is that I'm assuming that you want to live somewhere you like. If you like it then other people will like it too and it will grow. Secondly if you are willing to live there then you are probably comfortable with the people who live there and understand them well enough. The reason for these rules is that if you have limited space and more people who want to live there then there is room for then rents will go up.

The third rule is all about cash flow. Don't pay for someone else's idea. Oh this will be great if you put a new roof on and then paint it and add new carpet it will rent for $500. Look at what it is getting for rent now and then pay what it is worth right now as is. I use a complex formula I look at all expenses and compare the expenses to similar buildings and if they are in the range then I use them. If they are too low I use averages. If they are too high I try to figure out why they are high and then use the high numbers and go in with a plan to lower those expenses. For instance on the latest building I bought the water bill is running $28k a year. That was higher then the average for the area. As I inspected the building I found out why the water bill was so high -- leaky faucets and 5.5 gallon per flush toilets and no low flow shower heads. I figure I can cut the water usage in half by replacing the toilets with 1.6 gallon toilets, fixing leaks and adding low flow shower heads. That saves $14k a year and will cost me $12.6k. Payback time 1 year. When I buy a building the expenses run around 45% to 50%. After I have owned the building for three years or so they run at 32% to 37%. This is partly due to raising the rent and partly due to decreasing the expenses.

Now I only buy in name brand cities. There have to be jobs I am avoiding secondary and terciary markets b/c I don't know what the economy is going to do.

I figure if I can buy something for less then it costs to replace a unit then there are not going to be a lot of people building new units. If it costs $175k per unit to build a unit (not a high figure in CA metro areas) and I can just cash flow buying at $86k a unit the market isn't going to be flooded with new units.

So now the 1% rule. Every where that I buy buildings have rents closing in an average of $1k per month. I don't look at a building unless it is close to a cost of monthly rent times 1000. I think the math is the same as a 1% rule. I get a lot of calls from Realtors and they say that deals like I want are hard to find in California. I agree they are.

At this point in my career I can ask my property management firm what the average expenses are supposed to be. They have 1000's of units under management and know the numbers off the top of their heads. Before I had to beg the numbers off of appraisers or other property owners.

Between appreciation and cash flow I have done well. Right now the goal is to use money I have to invest to build some speculative, buy some wholesale or flip properties and take the profit pay off the buildings I have so that I own them outright. At that point I won't have to work any harder then I want to.

So what is your investment strategy?

Post: The other side of Foreclosure

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

At this point I am waiting to see copies of the DOT's. I still don't know if my friend is in first position or subordinate. We are having trouble communicating b/c he doesn't have a phone or internet all of the time. After I study the DOT's, the statute law, and books on how to avoid foreclosure I will have more of an idea on how to proceed. Thanks for the replies I will post more info as I get it.

Post: The other side of Foreclosure

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

Thanks for all the replies. If you guys are interested I will keep you informed on how things go. There is some very good information/advice here. I'm still unclear if my friend is in first position or second. He is actually getting ready to sail from Panama to Hawaii and then head back to the SF Bay Area to deal with this. He had a medical issue and was forced to turn around after five days at sea. I figured I would help him out and do some of the legwork for him.

Post: The other side of Foreclosure

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

The problem is that he doesn't have the $ to buy anyone off. I am trying to help him out w/o spending a ton of money. I will call my attorney and ask him what it would cost to file the papers after I get the Deed of Trust and title report. I don't want to offer to pay for an attorney and then find out it may cost $10k. Then there is the problem of bankruptcy filing should the guy in the building decide to do that.

Post: The other side of Foreclosure

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

I have a friend who sold a property and now has to foreclose. This is a commercial property in Oakland, CA. Does anyone have an idea of what it would cost to have an attorney foreclose on the property? My friend is in bad shape financially because the people have stopped paying their mortgage. It seems like there is still value in the property if it were resold.

Post: multiunits in San Jose, CA

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

San Jose California. Silicone Valley. A very affluent area. Lots of people paying in excess of $1000 a month for studio and one bedroom apartments. So if you can get a cash flow out of a property there you are in pretty good shape IMHO. 1) You have geographic barriers to growth The Bay the Ocean 2) There are lots of people who want to live there so they can become the next e miliionaire. 3)You have extremely high costs to build new buildings. I worked for a company that developed affordable housing and their costs were in excess of $200k per unit. 4) Average housing costs are such that not many people can afford to buy a house. and 5) There are lots of jobs in San Jose.

Post: Hello From a California Investor

Charlie McKenziePosted
  • Investor
  • Nevada City, CA
  • Posts 13
  • Votes 13

Wow thanks for the quick responses.
Charles - I just purchased a 56 unit building in San Diego that needs some rehab and has deferred maintenance. I am also looking for- " a perfect, low risk spec house to develop" LOL as if there were such a thing.

Marie thanks for the welcome

Jackie I am looking to buy apartment buildings of 40 units or larger in locations with geographic impediments to growth and at costs below replacement. Also looking for a spec building project in a AAA location that I can afford to do without going to the bank.