All Forum Posts by: Ryan Stumbo

@Dan Heuschele the difference is if my crypto starts to appreciate or depreciate at any moment, I can sell it. I don’t have to pray or hope for anything. If you buy real estate with the hopes of appreciation, but instead it depreciates, you are stuck with it because you have to have a human being that will buy it from you, or keep it until the prices go back to where you need them. So again, I’m not against buying something that will appreciate or depreciate, I’m simply stating TO ME I like stocks and crypto better for appreciation simply because I can reduce my risks just by watching the markets. I don’t feel like you wake up one day and see a stock market number that will guarantee your house is going to rise and fall in value and give you a hint, but maybe I’m wrong on that. Haven’t studied the correlation between stocks and real estate and if there are stocks that accurately predict a real estate dip.

Again, I’m new here man. I enjoy learning. I was just simply curious why my deals were coming out negative and why realtors seemed content with that. And through your responses and multiple others, it sounds like most realtors are banking on appreciation and not worrying about monthly cash flow. That is perfectly fine with me. I’m not wealthy enough at this point to sacrifice cash flow for a deal where I’m crossing my fingers and just hoping everyone is correct about the real estate market continuing to appreciate.

@Justin Sullivan sounds like we’re in a pretty similar place. I also have a 4plex back in my home state that I’m currently gutting and remodeling as well. I never got in on Doge haha I invest in a lot of crypto but it’s mostly crypto that I think is going to be used in the real world in the future. Real estate is probably the most stable over the long term so I’d like to increase the amount of real estate I own for sure. Always open to connecting. I sent you a message!

@Justin Sullivan haha you would be correct sir. I have about 150k total and pretty much 0 debt. Paid everything off. Have about 100k of that in Crypto so I was just going to let it sit through this bull run about to come up. Any time I mention crypto people mock that as well but I’ve made a lot of money on it since I started investing and learned a lot about it. It’s an exciting time, big or small time, to be an investor and I’m just blessed to be a part of it. I enjoy learning so it’s worth it to deal with the occasional snooty comment on a forum haha

@Stone Jin I just did the calculations with 20% down and conventional loan rates and it did lower it to -3%. A huge decrease obviously but still a negative. So I guess if someone is counting on these rents in mediocre areas continuing to skyrocket, then the -3% CoCr isn’t such a huge deal, also while factoring in appreciation. I still prefer to have cash flow out of the gate, so these really aren’t my type of deals. I’ll keep looking until I find something more what I’m looking for.

@Stone Jin haha that sounded much nicer. Not defensive, just seems a couple responses are more interested in defending the Phoenix market or making passive aggressive comments. I simply made a post asking if CoCr matters in this market and why all my deals I would pursue come back negative. A simple “you’re not putting enough down payment” or “lots of people are depending on appreciation so they’ll take the negative CoCr at first” would’ve been fine. But a couple people instead responded talking about my low down payment and “lowball” offers. Then another guy said my figures are too big for Cap-Ex and other stuff when Bigger Pockets is the place I got those figures from. I even accounted for the hot market and made the vacancy rate like 1-2%. I will put in conventional loan terms and see what this brings my CoCr to and let you know.

@David Arsene made a snooty comment that I’m a low baller with a low down payment without providing any insight into why it’s a lowball, which is why I made the entire post. To try to figure out if there was something within this specific market I’m not accounting for when calculating my deals.

Then @Dan Heuschele made the point that I’m not ok with appreciation when I never said that. But I definitely am not ok with -50% and losing lots of money monthly only praying for appreciation. That’s a recipe for disaster. There’s a happy medium with CoCr and appreciation. I don’t need a 40% return on every deal.. but you’re right. Some of my crypto has grown at 200-400% in about a year or 2, so I’m definitely content with that.

@Dan Heuschele so you’re telling me income increases have nothing to do with rents. What if the rents go up to $3000 a month for a 2 BR? What does it matter if that matches the metric you used if people’s incomes have barely increased? Do median incomes not play a role at all in what can be charged for rent?

@Stone Jin I never said I was only looking in Arcadia. I made a point that a realtor tried to tell me that rents would be $2000 monthly, when you’d be hard pressed to get that in Arcadia. And the area wasn’t the best that I was talking to her about. So I was calling BS on what I was being told. Read the entire post.

Also, if you have 150k saved up and good W2 income, wouldn't the smart thing be to try to get as many properties as possible with that 150k (hence the FHA loan). I watch and read lots of real estate content, and have heard multiple times you make your money stretch over a few properties, rather than using all your money on one deal. I get the sense a few of you are taking it as a personal dig at your home state or something. There are bad deals and low CoCr deals everywhere. I'm simply on Arizona and noticing a lot more of them. I'm not trying to hurt your feelings.

@David Arsene low ball on a property that has negative return? Or maybe it’s just overpriced. Hey, either way, I’m not desperate for a Phoenix property. I have 3 so far and can easily go the fixer upper route. I guess I thought when a property was on the market for over 120 days that the person selling would maybe have the thought “wow. So maybe my property isn’t worth this much. Maybe I should take something less?” .. but who knows. I guess I’m the crazy one. Hey, good luck overpaying and buying above the median when the market dips. Seemed to work out for lots of people in the past.

@Justin Sullivan thanks for the honest, respectful advice without any insults. So then it sounds as if most people buying these properties at silly prices are counting on the appreciation. From everything I’ve ever learned from Bigger Pockets, housing market crash stories, etc, you NEVER buy with strictly the hopes and prayers of appreciation. It seems as if people are doing exactly that. Not paying attention to any numbers or rental income, buying at a crazy price, then just crossing their fingers and hoping 5 years down the road the property 3-5x its value. Seems risky as crap but hey, more power to those doing that. But at least this explains why all my deals I research are in the negatives for CoCr and still being sold at a nearby price as the listing price and why realtors basically mock my existence for not buying at full price lol

@Ockert Kruger thank God! Lol I thought I was the only one. I have 3 properties but have had tough luck finding those. But don’t get discouraged, I’m learning more as I go, and it seems a lot of people luck into their first few deals haha .. find something off market, private seller, etc