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All Forum Posts by: Roxie Kim

Roxie Kim has started 2 posts and replied 28 times.

Post: Found more repairs than expected during inspection - Fresno, CA

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Sanjeev Advani:

@Roxie Kim was there room in the deal for repairs to be made and still return well? 

Margins were pretty slim since this was an MLS listing. Adding the rehab costs would have brought down my cap rate to just under 5% using an expense ratio of 55.6%. Not terrible......but not worth the trouble, IMO. Someone with good local connections might be able to make it work. But then again, someone with good local connections could also probably find a better deal to begin with.

Post: Found more repairs than expected during inspection - Fresno, CA

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5

I recently backed out of a multi-unit in Bakersfield due to issues similar to what you are going through. After getting a closer look at each unit, I was appalled by just how messy the tenants' places were and how much deferred maintenance there was.  But to be honest, I believe the main issue was the fact that we weren't local and we would be relying on a PM to maintain the place. If were were planning to live on or near the property, we probably would have gone ahead with the purchase and fixed each problem one by one and managed the property just the way we would have wanted.

Post: Changes to Definition of Accredited Investors

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Mike V.:

I dont see what the hype is all about... in all my accredited investments I’ve never once been asked for any type of ‘proof’ that I qualify.  It’s always a ‘check this box’ or ‘speak to some random guy for a few mins on the phone’.  Granted I’m not knee deep in these types of investments but it doesn’t exactly seem like it’s enforced from what I’ve seen. 

Interesting.... It sounds like even now, firms are taking liberties in defining what are reasonable steps in determining if its investors are accredited. Just imagine how bad things will be with this additional option.

I'm invested with two private placements and each of their checks for my status included sending over bank statements, as well as tax statements to show ownership in my real estate holdings. It didn't enjoy putting the documentation together, but quite honestly, I had more peace of mind knowing these firms were being meticulous about this.

Post: CD vs Savings, comparing the rates

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Roxie Kim:

I disagree. I think the fact that you have to hold the treasury for ten years in order for it to be risk-free is not irrelevant at all. That's why the interest rate on the ten year is higher than for treasuries that are shorter term.....to account for the interest rate risk. You claim the ten-year treasury is virtually risk free,....all I'm saying is that I agree, provided you are sure you will keep it for ten years. If not, then the only way you will be able to sell that note is either at a discount or a premium, depending on which way interest rates went since purchase.  Why do you think the coupon on the 90-day rate is so much lower? Oh yeah, that's right...because that's the security that TRULY has no risk....as it will mature in 90 days.

I really didn't want to get pedantic on this thread.   You are technically correct that a longer duration security will by definition have more sensitivity to interest rates. But all of you've done is defined duration.  When speaking of US Tsy, the principal is assured, therefore the "risk" is zero as defined by loss of principal.  Can there mark to market gyrations? Of course.  Will it ever be worth 0?  No.  It will be the definition of "risk free rate" in many a financial model, even if some guy on the Internet doesn't agree with it.

The reason you should be paid more for a longer duration bond is because of term premium.  Although, there have been many times in our history (even as recently as 2004 ) that the rate curve inverted.  Meaning you were getting higher yields on shorter dated treasuries. We're actually not far off from that now, with the 10/30s at 12bps.  

All I've done is defined duration? I don't even know what that means... If you think the ten-year maturity period is insignificant, that's your prerogative. The only reason I'm continuing to harp on this topic is that during periods of rising interest rates, buying a 10-year treasury is NOT an investment I would recommend for any purpose including capital preservation because the chances are high that you're going to want to use that money when the next real-estate cycle begins.

You're saying that you think the ten-year treasury is risk-free because principal is assured after ten years. I understand...you and I just have very different definitions of risk because in the real world, principal is not assured.

Haha, BTW, very nice private message you sent me there Kon Zel. You're a real potty mouth, aren't you?

Post: CD vs Savings, comparing the rates

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Mike V.:

I keep my cash in FFRXH. 4.24% yield and doesn’t move much. Pretty liquid.  

Not recommending or endorsing. Just sharing what I do since no one else is ‘giving their secret sauce’. 

On a related note to the ten-year treasuries discussion.... This fund has a lot less interest rate risk than 10 year treasuries as most of its holdings are floating rate securities based on the LIBOR plus a set spread. So as interest rates so up, so will the coupon on this fund's holdings and the NAV per share of the fund will not go down. In fact, it will probably go up. I'm pretty familiar with this phenomenon as I work for a private equity firm that does something very similar to this fund (albeit with more than double the coupon rate). However, just because interest rate risk is mitigated via floating rate securities does not mean this fund does not have its own set of risks......specifically as they pertain to the market value of its holdings based on certain ability to pay interest and principal pricing models and subsequently the NAV/share of the fund. OK, NOW I've veered off course....

Post: CD vs Savings, comparing the rates

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Roxie Kim:
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Roxie Kim:

 It's only risk-free if you are 100% sure you will keep it till maturity. What if rates go up and you need to sell?

Interest rate risk isn't a system risk.   Even rates go to infinity, you're still guaranteed your rate if you hold.  The value of your investment will never be 0.  Whereas a bank loan can actually go to 0 if the recovery rate at bankruptcy is 0 for that tranche.  

Yeah, I know that....that's why I said it's only risk free if you keep till maturity. I understand that the principal underlying value will, absent a government collapse, never be impaired. I'm not advocating a bank loan over a treasury because those two cannot be compared. So if you're are absolutely, 100% sure that you will not need to redeem before the 10 years is up, then I would agree, that it's a risk-free investment. However, in the real world, a ten-year crystal ball just does not happen. Given the current direction of interest rates, I can pretty much guarantee that a 10-year treasury purchased today will be sold at a discount if you tried to sell it in 3-4 years. 

Now you're bringing in concepts such as duration, which are irrelevant to the point I was making as well as the original discussion.  

We've veered off course from the original topic which was to compare different cash products.  

The only point I was making was that there are better alternatives than CD and savings accounts that offer the same liquidity.  That's all.

I disagree. I think the fact that you have to hold the treasury for ten years in order for it to be risk-free is not irrelevant at all. That's why the interest rate on the ten year is higher than for treasuries that are shorter term.....to account for the interest rate risk. You claim the ten-year treasury is virtually risk free,....all I'm saying is that I agree, provided you are sure you will keep it for ten years. If not, then the only way you will be able to sell that note is either at a discount or a premium, depending on which way interest rates went since purchase.  Why do you think the coupon on the 90-day rate is so much lower? Oh yeah, that's right...because that's the security that TRULY has no risk....as it will mature in 90 days.

Post: CD vs Savings, comparing the rates

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Roxie Kim:

 It's only risk-free if you are 100% sure you will keep it till maturity. What if rates go up and you need to sell?

Interest rate risk isn't a system risk.   Even rates go to infinity, you're still guaranteed your rate if you hold.  The value of your investment will never be 0.  Whereas a bank loan can actually go to 0 if the recovery rate at bankruptcy is 0 for that tranche.  

Yeah, I know that....that's why I said it's only risk free if you keep till maturity. I understand that the principal underlying value will, absent a government collapse, never be impaired. I'm not advocating a bank loan over a treasury because those two cannot be compared. So if you're are absolutely, 100% sure that you will not need to redeem before the 10 years is up, then I would agree, that it's a risk-free investment. However, in the real world, a ten-year crystal ball just does not happen. Given the current direction of interest rates, I can pretty much guarantee that a 10-year treasury purchased today will be sold at a discount if you tried to sell it in 3-4 years. 

Post: CD vs Savings, comparing the rates

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Mike V.:
Originally posted by @Kon Zel:
Originally posted by @Mike V.:

I keep my cash in FFRXH. 4.24% yield and doesn’t move much. Pretty liquid.  

Not recommending or endorsing. Just sharing what I do since no one else is ‘giving their secret sauce’. 

Keeping "cash" in a floating rate bank loan fund isn't wise for any investor.  The 4.24% yield is alluring, but the holdings are rated single-B and BB mostly.  On top of that, it's levered.  This is far from a cash vehicle.  The underlying holdings are loans, not bonds so while there is a market for them, it's not exactly t-bill liquid.  


It's your money, so do as your please, but I'm just outlining the risks for the less informed.  

If anyone else wants to get true "cash" liquidity and better rates than what most banks offer, just buy t-bills directly from the treasury at treasurydirect.gov 

Source: am an institutional fixed income portfolio manager managing a significant book

Feel free to reach out with any questions if what I wrote isn't clear.

Anything over like 2% will have some risk. That’s a given. I’m comfortable because if you pull up the chart in the last 2 years it’s never gone + or - a dime while paying consistently. 

Definitely not for everyone. 

Disagree considering a 10yr tsy is at ~2.80 right now.  That's literally a risk free return (of course assuming that the US gov't will repay its debt obligations).  4 week bills are yielding ~1.90, 26 weeks are at 2.07.  Take a look here:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-char...

Again, every investor has their own risk profile, but don't confuse cash with investments.  FFRHX is the latter.  For those interested, here is the performance over the last few years:

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performanc...

Bank loans are a great investment, especially in an uprate environment but they are not cash.  One needs to understand the risks when buying them - where we are in the credit cycle, what the structure of these investments is, why they're rated below investment grade, etc.  

Mike I'm not picking on you, I'm just trying to lay out that this might not be the best fit for everyone.

 It's only risk-free if you are 100% sure you will keep it till maturity. What if rates go up and you need to sell?

Post: RE Crash prediction for 2020

Roxie KimPosted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 29
  • Votes 5
Originally posted by @Vinay H.:
I read that rents are down at least 3% in the hot markets of SF, NYC and Boston? Any landlord in these areas care to comment? If so, how does that affect the decisions to buy rental properties in these metros as the tents could go Yes down further whilst the prices are skyrocketing out of control!!??

Is a crash in the investment market in these areas inevitable? Looks like right now almost every rental investment in Cambridge MA is going to bleed money on a rental cash flow basis. Sample figures. 2 br 1 bath listing for 550 k selling at 570k. Monthly expense with just mortgage tax and fees are running at 2.7 to 3k and the rents have softened to 2.3k. Now if you add vacancy and maintenance to this equation, it looks like such an "investment" in Cambridge is going to bleed 5 to 6 k a year on a cash flow basis.

Of course, the potential for appreciation is 4% easily a year or even 10% in these areas but again the numbers show a market that is not rooted in reality.

Crash prediction is as follows: More apartments staying vacant (seattle times article and npr podcast on nyc yesterday) Projects are permitted and planned years in advance so even as commercial multi family of 50+ are crashing, they are still building Ok n next 2 years smaller devlopers and property managers to go under, default, get bought out.

Short REITs such as avalon that have large exposure to markets such as SF Seattle and NYC where rents went up so high to drive people to purchase but developers kept permitting

Note analysis does not apply to sfh and non top 10 metro.

There has been a tremendous amount of development in 'A' rental units here in Los Angeles. Neighborhood looks beautiful with all these magnificent, modern-looking apartment structures here in Koreatown, Los Angeles. But with this type of saturation in high-end units, which I hear is happening in other metropolitan cities, a cool-down is all but inevitable. Through multiple layers of hearsay, I have learned that the major player here in my neighborhood has stated that he will no longer develop rental units and instead focus on commercial. 

Originally posted by @Omar Khan:
Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:
Originally posted by @Omar Khan:
Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:
Originally posted by @Alina Trigub:

@Andrey Y. The title of your post indicates that you "...can't stop" investing in large apartment syndications. I think this strategy of yours is about tochange after you read and re-read some of the incredible feedback received here from @Omar Khan @Mike Dymski @Jay Hinrichs @Ian Ippolito and many others :) 

Bottom line for you is: to digest all of this, do your own homework on different asset classes and syndicators, strategies,etc to align with your long term plans. And then continue diversifying your portfolio beyond syndications. 

If passive investing is your life choice, then consider looking into Betterment and Wealthfront. While these auto-robo advisers only stick to stock market offering, they complement their package with a lot of other valuable options such as tax loss harvesting and auto-re-balancing.

Happy to share my equity investing via syndications experience with you and others. Feel free to PM. I've done it directly and through SDIRA, checkbook IRA and solo 401k. So can cover them all.

Best of luck!

 Thanks for your comment!

I will definitely be doing some thinking and strategizing over the next few days. I am most compelled to look into mobile home parks and self-storage facilities. If someone had worked with a firm they particularly like or that has been around for a while, please share here or by PM. I will of course do my own homework but I'm open to leads and see what had worked for others.

As for Wealthfront and Betterment, I an not a huge fan of paper assets, so I prefer that they never exceed 15% of my overall investments.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but syndications are paper assets. You have a securitized interest in a property but not direct control over the physical asset. 

Also, you're going to have a tough time investing if you avoid/reduce exposure to paper assets. 

I disagree. I don't think they are paper assets in the same way that stocks/bonds are. Being an investor in a large apartment complex you are maybe 4 steps removed from the physical building, whereas investing in a mutual fund you are probably 20-30 steps removed. I don't believe that investing in a REIT is "investing in real estate", at all. I think paper assets are more nebulous and easier manipulated. Plus, only a tiny proportion of all stock market businesses are backed by real estate or equipment.

Respectfully, you are entitled to your opinion but you aren't entitled to facts. 

You have ZERO control akin to a mutual fund. Your best hope, unlike mutual funds with audited financial statements and a public track record, is that the syndicator is professional and honest. Short of that you have little to no recourse if things go south. I would suggest you read the PPM to realize how much, or how little, recourse you have. 

You are in for a rude shock if you think traditional stock are more easily manipulated. Most syndicators have little oversight on internal controls and have shoddy financial reporting. Also, they are not obliged to provide even a fraction of transparency that the average mutual fund manager has to provide. 

This is why relationships are critical in syndications and not as much when investing in a typical mutual fund/ETF portfolio.

Don't mistake a rising tide - the RE market being up for 9 years - for operational intelligence. 

 As someone who works indirectly in Sarbanes-Oxley, I wholeheartedly agree. The amount of oversight and procedure based controls for exchange-listed investments is staggering. But this is done to protect all the non-accredited investors who buy these investments. Syndicated deals, private equity LP funds, private credit, or any other form of alternative investment or private partnership are geared toward accredited investors who are expected to do their own due diligence.