All Forum Posts by: Roman A Sandler

Hi guys,

I bought my family home 3 years ago and looking to get my first SFR investment property. I live in Los Angeles and dont want to get the investment there due to (1) cost (2) tenant-friendliness.

I am trying my best to be methodical about where to invest out-of-state, so I made the following criteria:

1. Population: >800k people in 2023 (based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area)
2. Population growth
   1. 2020-2023 Population growth >5% (based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area)... 
   2. Population growth >1.5% (based on https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/the-nations-most-popular-and-fastest-growing-metropolitan-areas-in-2023?g=173096))

1. Housing supply shortage: # new jobs per permit issued >1.5 (based on https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/housing-shortage-tracker)
2. Rent affordability <.33 (based on https://www.zillow.com/research/housing-supply-32743)
3. Housing affordability <.40 (based on https://www.zillow.com/research/housing-supply-32743/)

Based on these criteria I got 3 cities:

1. Raleigh, NC
2. Charleston, SC
3. San Antonio, TX

I would love to know your thoughts on this methodology. Are there things I am missing?

Of the 3 cities, I am leaning towards Charleston since it is bounded at least partially by water and wetlands which would prevent large-scale urban sprawl and increased supply of housing.

PS: Happy to share my spreadsheet w/ anyone who DMs me. 

Thanks!

Hi guys,

I am a newbie and looking for my first investment property. I will in CA but dont want to invest here for obvious reasons.

I have family in LV and South Florida and wanted to invest there. Spoke w/ some Invester-friendly relators there and they both seemed to say "Its very hard to get cashflow-positive property now and you can expect appreciation of 2-5%." My non-realtor friends in these places say that property values might actually be coming down right now. At these rates, it seems like it would be better (for now) to wait on the sidelines and get a high-dividend REIT.

So my questions are:

1. Is my understanding correct?

2. Are there any markets which currently do seem to have much better returns (looking to get a 4-10% cashflow + decent appreciation on a $500k-$1M property. open to short-term or long-term).

3. If so, is there any systematic way to find these markets besides word-of-mouth? (I'm a data scientist and feel comfortable crunching #s)

Thanks!

Hey, you guys are right. Even Mashvisor's comps dont go above anywhere near their proposed rent. I think the site is just poorly done....

Hi guys, 

I just put together my first spreadsheet for a potential investment. It is found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EMfiBygtsfhWk7zm8bKc...

The property is here: 
217 NW 14th St, Pompano Beach, FL 33060 | MLS #F10434086 | Zillow

I sources the property and got comps from Mashvisor, which estimated that rent would be $6258/mo w/ 93% occupancy rate. 

According to my calculations the raw CoC (20% down) is 8.28%

Several questions:

1. I approximated 7% for property management, 10% for maintenence, and 0% for CapEx. Is this reasonable?

2. I dont understand why CoC doesnt include the principal part of the mortgage payment. I included that in cell D21. Like shouldnt the equity portion be subtracted from payments? If that is the case CoC goes from 8.28% to 13.68%. Not sure why noone seems to calculate it like this.

3. General comment - its crazy how sensitive ROI/CoC is to interest rates. If interest rate goes to 6%, CoC increases by 3%!

4. What is a reasonable rate of appreciation to assume? How does one calculate this for different areas?

5. Anything else I am missing?

PS: If there are any investment orieted agents in south florida here, feel free to reach out!

-Roman