I knew a couple of people who sold all of their real estate holdings in 2006 and became renters because they saw real estate at an all-time high and ready for a major correction (one was a real estate investor and the other was an investor, but not in real estate). I know the RE investor was a fan of Bruce Norris, but I'm not sure about the non RE investor. With the benefit of hindsight, these two individuals look like geniuses.
What I don't know is where these two individuals are today. They timed the market successfully to get out, but they would have had to time the market successfully to get back in. Timing the market consistently and successfully over a long period is hard to do.
In 2007, I could tell something bad was happening from the Cashflow parties I attended. The NINJA loan period of the early 2000s attracted many new entrants into real estate (just as the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s attracted a lot of workers and venture capital into tech startups [remember pets.com and webvan.com]). People make easy money when easy financing is available. These real estate workers started showing up at the Cashflow parties and had long faces because they had either been laid off or their business income had dried up and they were looking for what they might do next to earn a living. Then the 2008 meltdown hit and things got bad all over.
I've learned to base my investment decisions on my household budget rather than on the market. If I have money to invest, I buy intelligently (at least I hope I do). If I need money, I sell some of my assets to raise the cash I need (selling a loser raises cash and creates a tax loss). I try not to overextend myself so if I'm wrong about an income-producing asset or if a large expense unexpectedly comes up, I have enough reserve cushion to ride out the storm.
I have no idea where we are in the cycle today, but since it's been so good for so long, my planning premise is the downside is more likely than the upside. I'm being cautious. Now is the time to make a shopping list of what to buy if the market pulls back. If the market doesn't pull back, then any items on the shopping list will cost more in the future, which is one of the hazards of a free market economy. Either way, however, it's important to stay engaged with the market.