All Forum Posts by: Robin Rinaldi

Interestingly, here's Evolve's market report for the Smokies (Gatlinburg area) and the Poconos (Stroudsburg/Tobyhanna). The Poconos looks not as busy, for sure, but this implies that rentals actually *can* cover my monthly costs. It's not that I trust Evolve's reports implicitly, it's just that I have no reason to think a national company would "push" an area like the Poconos when they could focus on any vacation area anywhere. They have a ton of market reports here: https://evolvevacationrental.com/vacation-rental-performance-reports ... I'm leaning against using Evolve, but their site is one of the few where I've seen market reports all in one place. The AirBNB calculator also says I can expect between $2100-$2900/month income from a 4BR in Pocono Pines. That figure definitely covers my mortgage and expenses and even the high membership fees. Am I missing something here? It looks to me that I can cover my monthly expenses and break even. What I'm more worried about is exit strategy and making my money back when I sell. I come from CA where appreciation is never a concern. Looking at the flat values over the last 10 years in the Poconos is scary. Although buyers who've taken properties with good bones and cosmetically updated them have definitely made money, like anywhere. I'm not trying to argue, I'm really trying to figure this out. For context, I have a lot of cash on hand from a sale in San Francisco—enough to buy cash, but I'm trying to use "other people's money" instead—and I do plan to buy more properties than just this one in the Poconos, all in bigger money-making markets. But maybe I'm doing this in the wrong order? Chris, instead of taking over this thread with my individual situation, maybe I can DM you and ask what you would do in my shoes? I know it's only my "heart" leading me toward the Poconos... if my family wasn't there I'd ignore it completely. But what if I do three "head" investments and one "heart"? Would that work? :) Maybe I do the smart ones first and get rental income streaming.

https://www.evolvevrn.com/hubfs/DownloadableContent/VRPR/Gatlinburg-Area.pdf

https://www.evolvevrn.com/hubfs/DownloadableContent/VRPR/Poconos-Area.pdf

PS: The PA Supreme Court decision has already fallen out to an extent. A few Pocono communities have outlawed STRs, but the private lake communities never would. They are filled with part-timers, second-home owners, and Florida snowbirds who rent out their homes much of the year. Very few full-time residents there to vote "no" on STRs.

Appreciate all the input, thank you. Let me approach it this way instead: I definitely want this vacation rental to pay for itself, mortgage-wise, after a 25% down payment. And I definitely want to not lose money when I go to sell it in 5-10-15 years. Other than that, I don't need it to fund retirement or cash flow to high heaven. (And yes, I have the discipline to never use it in summer, given that I spend most of summer on the West Coast.) So if not the Poconos, then where would you advise buying a house within 2 hours of NYC to provide an escape from skyscrapers and concrete, in a market where the property could earn enough vacation income to pay for its total monthly expenses? Catskills? Jersey shore? A duplex in Stroudsburg that I can lease half of to a long-term renter and "house hack" my own weekend getaway? Jersey and New York taxes seem just as bad as Monroe County, though appreciation seems better too. And of course, just a little bit south of the Poconos is the beloved-by-realtors Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area, currently on fire real-estate wise... but that's not exactly a bucolic escape. 

I am (was?) close to putting in an offer on a really lovely 3BD modern ranch house in Lake Naomi, by far the nicest lake community in the Poconos with a huge spa-like clubhouse, pristine beaches, indoor and outdoor Olympic pools, tennis, golf, walking trails, etc. The family/kid activities in summer are nonstop. Though it's quiet and well-kept and you feel very much "in the woods" while there, you are 10 minutes from shopping outlets, highways, and the Kalahari Water Park and 20 minutes from three ski resorts and a casino. 

Vacation rental histories I've seen indicate I could at least cover the mortgage and expenses (Lake Naomi dues/membership is SKY HIGH—you get what you pay for.) But this thread has me super-scared that I'm making a mistake. 

The thing is, this isn't "just" a vacation rental for me. Primarily, it's an easy city escape halfway between Manhattan where I live and northern PA where my whole family lives. So it's for my use first, but I want rental income to break even, and I don't want to lose money when I sell. The Poconos do seem to have tons of houses on the market, and if you look at price histories, the story mostly isn't pretty. Unless you are flipping and greatly improving a property, you're selling for the same price you bought 10 years ago. With a 10K buy-in fee to Lake Naomi and 4K annual membership/dues, it's going to be even harder to break even when I sell. 

The Poconos does have a huge development coming in 2020, Pocono Springs (also 10 minutes from this house), with retail, dining, museums, outdoor light shows, but who knows if that will help the market or not. On the other hand, I drive in from NYC all the time and it seems I'm not alone; the highway is full of families with kayaks and bikes and skis strapped to their cars heading to the Poconos. I just saw a rental history sheet for a small cottage in a not-so-great lake community a good 20 minutes from any ski resort: it made 56K in 14 months. That's not bad for a 130K cottage close to nothing! A realtor owns it and it's staged and marketed very, very well. 

I guess my question is: if the Poconos makes the most sense to me location wise for a personal getaway/vacation rental, CAN I make it work, perhaps the way the realtor who owns his tiny cottage is making it work? Or is it doomed to fail? The house I'm looking at has tons going for it: bluestone fireplace, updated kitchen and baths, four-season Florida room, wraparound deck, incredible woodwork, two-car garage. But I'm going to have a mortgage, interest, insurance, community dues, membership, maintenance, snow removal, utilities, and cleaning fees, and ... part of me is thinking I should just invest in Maui instead. :) I know I need to do some calculations, and I'm new at this, but I'd love to hear any feedback for someone like me for whom the Poconos make the most sense lifestyle-location-family wise.

I am also thinking of using Evolve for just one vacation rental I'll soon buy. I think I can manage one on my own given I live an hour away. I'm also good at photos and copywriting so I don't need that aspect of their "marketing." What I like is that Evolve can list and sync calendars on the major booking sites, do the SEO to get listings seen, and adjust rates by algorithm. And I assumed their 10% fee meant that I don't have to pay separate percentages out to AirBNB, VRBO, TripAdvisor, etc. But is that true? Or am I paying Evolve's 10% and then a percentage out to all the booking engines too?

Following ... Same questions here. 

Thanks everyone. It looks like 2 votes for LHV, one for a warmer market, and one for Scranton, which is definitely the market I know best. Scranton does have what look to be some nice cash-flowing buildings, especially around its few universities, but they are usually not in good shape and I really don't want to be a slumlord (and I am NOT at the rehab/fix-it stage of investing yet). So I want a building that's already been updated and looks good. 

I'm interested in what kind of development is taking place in Lehigh Valley. I've always known Allentown as a really depressed town, but just now in browsing around I see lots of beautiful new McMansions being built. What's happening there that warrants it? Who's moving there? 

And I'd love to hear which southeast markets work best for someone living in the northeast as well. I will PM a few of you to follow up. Thanks!

Hello everyone, I'm brand new here. I currently live in Manhattan, travel between NY and eastern PA weekly to see family, and am looking to buy my first multifamily property. If I had to choose, I'm more interested in cash flow than appreciation/equity, but I don't want the property to go under water in the next 10 years. I want the purchase to be within two hours of Manhattan, which includes: 

1. Hudson river commuter towns like Ossining, Peekskill, Hastings, Beacon

2. Northern NJ commuter suburbs

3. Scranton and the Poconos (which I know well, I was born there)

4. Lehigh Valley

 5. Philadelphia

I do not want to invest in any of the five NYC boroughs.

Which of these markets would YOU choose for your first investment if you were looking for as much cash flow as possible? I have enough cash for a healthy down payment, but a freelance income as a writer that's not "great on paper." I would prefer not to go too far above $500K on the purchase price. I'm super-curious to hear your expertise and opinions. Thanks.