All Forum Posts by: Robert Willard

Robert, It all starts with a conversation like this.  A big hurdle that a lot of people have in this similar situation is not knowing what's possible on the financing side, and that's because most mortgage lenders only talk about the products they have.  One of the biggest and best kept secrets is non-qm lending, which caters to entrepreneurs, business owners, investors, retirees, etc. Over my career I've specialized in this area of lending and working with investors to help them build portfolios and use special programs for buying their first investment property even with no experience.  Would love to connect and send you some resources.  

I think appreciation is probably going to stay pretty flat in the near term so in my mind its a great time to buy if you can get the return you're looking for on a fairly priced property.  

Hello @Robert Willard, 

The first investment as you say takes a lot of faith in not feeling as though you're making a bad investment or being too risky. My favorite quote about this is "time in the market always beats timing the market". What this means is you have to look at the long term picture and not the brief snapshot of the market and how it looks like currently, specifically when investing for the long term. 

This graph shows how despite dips and spikes in the market, the housing market has trended up 106% over the last 20 years

SOURCE: https://www.visualcapitalist.c...

Having that mindset and understanding of how investing in the housing market for the long term is less concerned with where the market currently sits is step 1, but there are still risks investing in real estate if you don't know what a good deal looks like or the pitfalls to watch out for. 

So step 2 is finding a good agent and team that knows the market you want to invest in, and that can help you navigate around the common pitfalls new investors can make. 

I and my team are based out of Denver and focus on exactly that. Helping first time investors go from deal analysis, all the way through the purchase process, rehabbing the property if necessary, and getting the property rented and maintained. We aim to support and give you the confidence to go from "lurking" on the forums in BiggerPockets to being one of the many real estate investors that started out right where you are now. 

If you want to talk more about the investment opportunities in Denver and the Colorado market as well as how we can help you take those first steps, just send me a private message and I would be happy to talk you through our process. 

best of luck with your financial independence journey, retiring early, and getting that first investment property! 🤝🍀

@Robert Willard, first off if you are relying on a 401k as a primary resource for retirement you should NOT be 100% reliant on the stock market within your 401k. Every 401k I have ever seen has safer NON-stock choices such as bond funds. As you get closer to retirement age the mix of stocks versus the safer options should change so that you are less exposed to those ups and downs. You don't want a substantial downturn right before you want to retire to throw a monkey wrench in your plans!

With regard to real estate, there is NEVER a bad time to buy! A deal is a deal whenever you find it! Most investors are not speculating on market appreciation although some do in expensive markets. Most are looking at cash-flow generated from rents and paying down a mortgage building equity. Market appreciation is almost a bonus. In addition an investor seeks and takes advantage of tax breaks such as depreciation and tax deferment through 1031 exchanges.

It doesn't sound like you're vested enough in real estate investing to feel comfortable making it happen all on your own right now. Maybe go to local investor meet-ups, talk to a real estate agent who specializes in investing (and who likely is one themselves) and also think about what kind of investment might suit your goals.

Also consider what role you want to have in real estate investing? Will you actively manage or hire a PM? Will you do maintenance yourself or hire it out? Will you do your own bookkeeping or hire it out? What kind of investing would suit you? Long term rentals, AirBnB, flips, wholesaling, etc. Lots of options. 

@Robert Willard for a dock, typically a property is valued differently if it has year-round water versus seasonal water.  The lakes on the TN river go up and down at times throughout the year based on TVA opening the dams.  So many houses have a dock and water access spring/summer/fall, then in winter the water is lower and there is no water at their dock.  Those houses with year round water have a higher market value, of course.

Hi @Robert Willard. I second @Matt Payne's idea. Lake Lure is one of the best options down this way, and even does surprisingly well in the winter months. Perhaps spend $10 on a market report for a sample property on Price Labs. You'll see that nightly rate averages for Lake Lure are at the top for the entire Asheville region. The town has many outdoor options besides water sports, including great climbing, hiking, fishing, golfing, etc. There are quite a few good food options. It's just 30 minutes or so from other great downtowns like Black Mountain and Hendersonville, and 45ish from downtown Asheville. It's not far from the Asheville airport. And for wealthier guests, they'll like the fact that your home isn't mixed in with lower-income type homes. For these reasons and others, I nearly bought an STR there myself recently. Also, cabins in the woods, not on waterfront, do really well in LL, and cost much less. Finally, if you end up looking at South Carolina, know that taxes for non-owner occupants are very high, for all of SC. For example, a client of mine recently bought a lake house in SC. The prior owner's tax bill was about $350/yr. Hers is about $5,500/yr as a non-OO. Happy to discuss more if you want to give me a ring.

@Robert Willard what prices do you want? Is this solely for personal use, or also for a short term rental? If also a STR, what sort of return are you wanting to get? Do you require a dock? Do you need year round access or seasonal?

I'd say anything adjacent to a lake in TN will appreciate well in the near future, as people flock to the state.  People always value being on/near water.

In the Chattanooga area we have Lake Chickamauga, which is well known for its bass fishing (and the related STR demand!). Without more details it's difficult to say if it'd be a good fit.

You're not wrong about Social Media.  Still, I was surprised by people's comments.  I keep seeing that Cleveland is a good market for STR.  My own backyard.  Who would have thought?

There is a false consensus bias effect with social media. All it takes is 1-2 dozen debbie downers getting nasty in the comments to all of a sudden make it feel like everyone feels a certain way. Twitter is a perfect example of this. Where in reality, it was confirmation bias and insidious algorithms that led those people to that post and motivated them to leave a comment, while those who don't feel that way would've never known about it. 

I also wouldn't put it past the hotel industry and their associated PR and trade associations to hire some paid trolls, whether with their existing PR people or farming it out.