All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Originally posted by @Johnny B Bad:

Laymans guide to buying Vegas singles.

Mr Fs numbers. $250,000-$350,000 houses rent for $1,300-$1,900. Thats insanity. .5% ratios are reserved for HI, SFO, NY, SEA,etx.

Vegas is a 1% city.

If rent is $1,200 house is a buy when get to $130,000 or so. 1% is a guide not a hard fast rule.

KISS... keep it simple folks

Got it. That’s right, we can follow advice from @Bill Brandt. Apply 1% rule, start to buy rental in Vegas when house is $200k with $2000 rent each month.

If we make a bet, would the probability that the house price will go down be bigger or will go up be bigger in the next 6 to 24 months?

I make the first bet.

I bet that the probability that Las Vegas house price will go down in the next 6 to 24 months be bigger than the probability that the house price will go up.

In 2019, I sold the same Mountain Edge 1800 sq ft house for $285k.

@Brad D.

In Dec 2010, I bought a 1800 sq ft house for $170k in Mountain Edge decent area.

In 2012, I rent the same house at $975 per month.

@Brad D.

Last time, it took about 5 years to bottom from Oct 2006 ($340k) to Feb 2012 ($120k).

In Las Vegas, rent is usually about 6.7% of the purchase price before all the expenses (Mortgage, insurances, taxes, repairs, vacancy, management fee etc.)

“IF” rent stay at 6.7% of the purchase price, I would expect rent would be around $670 for a $120k house.

Many real estate agent have the same problem, they always say that it is a good time to buy and sell no matter which cycle, so it can keep business coming to them and earn the commissions by selling and buying houses.

A few agent are honest that they would tell their client it is not a good time to buy houses now.

Back to year 2012, many agent told their client that it is a good time to buy and sell houses then, and time have proved that they were wrong, year 2012 was a good time to buy house but a very bad time to sell houses.

We need more honest agent to tell their client that, it is a good time to sell houses now so the seller can get almost peak price in this late cycle, but today is a bad time to buy houses because the buyer will be stuck and may be under water for many years as soon as they buy it now.

I would not buy a property unseen. What if the property does not match with the showing pictures? What if the property has a lot of damages, mold, water leaking etc. that are not showing on the pictures? I’m sure seller and agent would not zoom in and show the damaged pictures. Can I sue both the seller and the real estate agent to pay for the repairs and damages that were not showing on the pictures after I buy the property unseen in Las Vegas? Risk is too high to buy a property unseen.

In addition, many hedge fund and big players have stopped buying. The one who are buying now are many “mom and pop investors” who are late to the this cycle, and the final retails user - homeowner occupied.

Tenant occupied property are investment properties, and purchase by investors only, that being said, tenant occupied investment properties are non-essential business in this Coronavirus crisis.

New rules just came out last night, Las Vegas cannot have showings in tenant occupied property anymore, which means, many investors will not buy tenant occupied investment and most tenant occupied listings will be gone in the next few months, because most buyers are not willing to buy properties unseen.

@Sam Josh

I understand your point, however, today we are closer to 2006 instead of 2012. If we are in 2006 today, still need to wait 6 more years for 2012.

Real estate, we are at the peak at no doubt, not easy to go back to normal. I have never seen all the casinos shut down in Las Vegas. CoVid-19 is not an easy health problem to be solved. On the news, the talks are two different solutions. Either wait for the heat (Summer Sun) to kill the virus by August this year or wait for the vaccine to come out (Scientists said at least 12 to 18 months). The scientists also said that it is not a guarantee that the heat can kill the virus, if the heat cannot kill the virus by the end of this summer, will be very tough and ugly. If all the casino shut down at least until August this year or next year, and many people are out of work for at least 5 to 18 months, it would be easy to predict the real estate would not look good at all down the road.