I've been trying to plan how to make my move.
The situation is that I own a commercial retail building.
Due to inexperience opted for a 10 year loan which is going to clear in 4 years. Refinanced during the pandemic, and was able to drop the rate to <4%. Due to new tenants, and improvements I made to the building even at a conservative 8% cap rate (my purchase cap rate) the building is worth around $1.6M. I've seen commercial property in the area go as low as 6% cap rate in that case it would be valued around $2.1M. This is not Manhattan to expect >/=5% cap rates, and I'm honestly not that greedy.
I'm not looking to sell, but I was thinking about cash out refinancing at 70% LTV.
When I explored this option in 2020 my lender said it wouldn't be possible because of occupancy issues (building was not fully occupied), and DSCR. I dropped my plans then given the state of the world in 2020.
Now its 2024, and I have around $300K in principal left on the loan.
I see the following options in front of me:
1. I've never done the cash out refinance option before, and I'm not really sure how lenders make their valuation, or appraisal. My lender used an insane 10% cap rate when making the initial loan which is why I made up the gap. This time I do hope to use multiple lenders, and the area has seen a decent amount of gentrification so assuming the $1.6M valuation, I hope to cash out with $800k. Assuming current interest rates my debt service would be around $87k/year (30 year, 7%) which I am comfortable with. Even if the appraisal comes out higher, I don't think I plan to borrow more than $1.1M just to be on the safe side. But is this option worth it? I would be replacing a sub 4% loan with 4 years left with a 30 year loan at 7%. Granted I could always refinance when rates drop, but that drop may not happen until 2026 with the roaring inflation data that just came out today. I plan to use the $800K to buy mixed use retail/MF, or just MF property(ies) in Northern NJ/NYC 4 boroughs minus Staten Island. $800K would allow me to access $2.6M+ worth of RE.
2. Hold off on my plans until 2026 when rates will drop, and I'll cash out with $950K ($3.1M+ RE). Similar plans as above, but obviously will have an opportunity cost in terms of lost equity in any future properties for 2 years time, and lost cash flow. There is also the chance that these said future properties will be more expensive to purchase due to 2 years of increased NOI on the seller side. But the benefit is lower rates on the COR from day 1, and lower rates to purchase on day 1.
3. Wait until 2028 when I will have no principal left, and take out the entire $1.1M ($3.6M+). I believe interest rates will be down to their historical average like in 2010s at sub 4%.
Hopefully I made sense. What would everyone do if you were in my situation?
I don't regret losing time in 2020-2023 because the occupancy situation, and rent situation was debatable. Also with a 10 year loan I had no cash flow, and it made no sense to do a cash out refi from 2018-2020 due to very little going towards my way anyway. It's also not good to dwell on the past !!