All Forum Posts by: Peter W.

 Can I poke at this part just a little bit. 

"Are you mentally and business wise at the point above, recognizing we are on the wrong path and cannot escape the train. If so, what are you doing in terms ofREI to either gain advantage or to reduce your risk?"

I'm trying to work through this for my family.  I can think through these things in engineering projects, but not so much for business and investing.  For me, I share similar concerns (but don't share the inevitability of it).  For me, in my little corner of the world, I saw two things I could do, a.) buy the tech monopolies, that is the oligarchs who are taking over and b.) buy hard assets (e.g. real estate) preferably with cheapish debt as inflation is likely to be at least above average moving forward.

What actions would you recommend to a middle/upper middle class person?  

Quote from @Daniel Suarez:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Steve K.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Steve K.:

Elon is getting $8M per day in tax dollars, while cutting government programs that cost much less than that per year. And he was not elected. The programs he's cutting employ a lot of good people and provide a lot of good services to the country. Has anyone seen the letters that federal employees are getting? These were not written by government employees and are insulting to good people who provide civil services. They say "stop being lazy and find a real job in the private sector". It's absurd and unjust. I know for a fact that Elon is a con man from when I worked in the solar industry, his solar company was a total scam and gave the whole industry a bad name. Trump also has a history of scamming people (Trump University, his charity, all of the contractors he never paid, everyone who got the short end of the stick during his multiple bankruptcies, claiming $70k tax write off per year on his taxes to do his hair, his company was found guilty of fraud, etc.). It's a con job by two of the biggest con artists in history. People are still worried about Hunter's laptop or Hillary's emails when the conspiracy is right in front of us. Like I said earlier, these two will be the world's first Trillionaires while the rest of us suffer.  

Ok, this Trump Derangement Syndrome is way outta control now. How about some FACTS and TRUTH OF CONTEXT for this: 

Yeah, what an Evil Guy Elon and Space-X is charging the US $8m per day for what was $16m+ per day....... 

"HOW DARE YOU SAVE US MONEY ELON!!!!!!!!"

Get out of you propaganda bubble Steve and read some facts. Stop being a tool used by those with nefarious reasons. You’re better than this Steve. You’re smarter and better than this. 

You don’t think Elon is a welfare queen? 
You’ve obviously fallen for the con. I know for a fact Elon is a con man from insider information. Whenever his solar company was about to go bankrupt, he’d launch an “exciting new product that will revolutionize the solar industry”. My friend was the head of the new products division there and Elon would just come up with these random new product ideas the night before a meeting with investors while pulling an all-nighter (on drugs btw) then order my friend to put a big marketing presentation together quickly, literally using Hollywood movie sets and actors pretending to be satisfied customers when the products were completely fake. Stocks would go up after the presentation, all based on lies. The product would never come out or even begin being developed, 100% smoke and mirrors. He does this with Tesla all the time too. Stocks will go down based on missed earnings reports and Elon will just announce some new shiny object that is “coming soon” to pump the stocks.  Like the Optimus Robot that is supposedly autonomous and coming to market next year, but was actually being controlled by humans with remote controls at its launch party. Just to pump the stock up. How much do you want to bet the robot will not be for sale anytime in the near future? The cybertruck and autonomous driving are also examples of products he promised many years before they were ready just to pump stocks. The stock prices of all of his companies have always been out of whack with their P/E ratios because he’s the world’s best conman. Nobody voted for him, and now he’s firing thousands of federal employees.

Wow, Steve, with all love brotha, seriously, your space-cadet way out there man. Come back down to earth with us. 

Seriously Bro, you need a detox. No joke, you need a propaganda detox. 

I suggest like one of those Canadian get-aways where it's awesome fishing, water sports, and no internet or cell reception. 

Just nature, life NO media of any kind at all. 

Look, it is fundamentally impossible for Elon to be any form of a "con-man". He has invented more things than this text box will probably allow for text, I mean that very literally. 

For Tesla he literally invented an entirely new form of manufacturing, including all the machines and tools for that invented manufacturing form.

Space-X is a list of hundreds upon hundreds of inventions. And to boot, he literally posts it all online FREE for anyone/everyone to take and use. 

Con Men do not invent things, more or less hundreds and thousands of things. 

Con Men do not offer open access to the masses. 

Elon said end all EV subsidies, including his. Con Men do not cut off there own e-z $. 

Before Space-X the US was reliant on Russian rockets and the Russian space agency. Did you not know this or just forget that? 

How is it "welfare"? That's the most bizarre spin. 

The US Gov, ie NASA, has contracted to hitch rides on Space-X rockets like a space taxi. Is you paying an Uber Driver "welfare" payments? 

Why do they contract for rides on Space-X vs there own rockets? I literally showed you the numbers. Because it's a TON cheaper. It's more then a 50% DISCOUNT. 

This total disregard for facts, and blind hate because of someone's political affiliation is mentally unhealthy. 

Seriously, get a vacation from all this stuff man, it's making your head soft. Get a detox. I know your smarter than this, I know your smart enough to think it through and think "wtf, that doesn't make sense, that's spin, wtf". But man, they've really got you punch-drunk on the kool-aid. 

Con-man might not be the exact word I’d use, but you’re definitely overhyping his achievements. Yeah, he’s done some impressive things, but let’s not act like he single-handedly invented Tesla or revolutionized every aspect of manufacturing. He invested in an existing company and made it successful, which is great, but that’s not the same as inventing it.

And let’s not forget Twitter lost about 80% of its value since he took over—so, not every move he makes is some galaxy-brain genius play. He’s got a track record of ignoring experts and making technical decisions based more on ego than expertise. The whole "he's open-sourcing everything for the world" thing sounds nice, but in practice, a lot of those ideas haven’t exactly panned out the way he claimed they would.
 

I think calling Tesla an existing business is a bit of a stretch.  It was two guys with an electric go cart before Elon came around.  He was chairman of the board for a while before taking over as CEO, and probably one of the most active chairmen as well (so active that it made more sense for him to become CEO).   What his companies have achieved with him in charge is unthinkably tremendous.

I'd agree that he definitely is not open sourcing everything--I'd probably say he isn't open sourcing anything.  I have secondhand knowledge on how he (spaceX) stole a significant portion of the IP for the Dragon.

"He’s got a track record of ignoring experts and making technical decisions based more on ego intuition than expertise." For better sometimes and for worse sometimes, but fixed.

Like all humans he has his goods and bads but he has accomplished is nothing short of unbelievable. 

Well, this has been a thread.  My view is still the president has minimal impact on most of the economy.  So my opinion is that what the president is doing has minimal impact on housing.  Folks remember, the modus operandi of both political parties is to fill your mind with stress in order to motivate you to do something.  Whether or not this stress is warranted is irrelevant to their need to fill your mind with it--in general your emotional energy is better spent elsewhere.

I expect inflation to continue to be elevated--driven in largely by the debt, which will continue to keep rates high and new supply relatively low.  And it will continue to provide increases to operational expenses which may or may not be able to pass along to the tenant depending on your market.

Elon is a bit of a loose cannon, sometimes with good ideas, sometimes with bad ideas (remember the boring company or how he kept insisting tesla cars should not come with steering wheels).  Some of his cuts will end up being very good and some disasterous.  Hopefully the administration will quickly pivot on the bad cuts.  I suspect the cuts have minimal but slightly good impact on the debt and the economy.

 I'm aware--one of my neighbors is one of them. I don't enjoy being a landlord--I enjoy being an engineer (my day job), so having more than a handful seems crazy.

Well, I'll tell you what I think.  I think the idea of owning 100 doors is crazy.  I would probably start in Albany and then 1031 into 2-3 multifamily buildings in the city, but you'll do you and I'll do me.

I live and invest in east side of Rochester, NY, there is a shortage of houses due to 20 years of negative population growth followed by significant growth post pandemic.  This is both to rent and to buy.  I think the story across a lot of the upstate is similar, net exodus from 2000-2020, followed by a surprising increase in prices and population growth following the pandemic as people (and companies) searched for affordability.  I know we have been positioned as the transgender capital of the US in large part because NYC is too expensive.   While I love upstate New York, I get the opinion that most people are here because of work or family and would rather live somewhere warmer.   So, I think you have a risk factor in upstate New York that you don't get in most other areas (it's not where most people would choose to live).

I think upstate New York one of the few areas in the country you can cash flow in B areas with 80% downpayment, so that's nice--in terms of deals, I think the numbers still work out at market prices.

Finally, the property taxes are very high in upstate New York.  On my properties about half of the mortgage payments go into escrow for taxes. I pencil in 4.5% when I underwrite my deals.

I apparently did not hit submit yesterday so here goes.

Are you planning on buying in East Rochester then?  As a heads up they have a reputation as being difficult to work with--especially with regard to trouble college kids might get into (bonfires, parties, trash etc.).  Otherwise, I think it is a good area to buy, it should cash flow as an LTR on day one (unlike other places nearby) and it is a nice community.  It has had higher appreciation than nearby towns since the pandemic and you should be cash flow neutral or slightly positive day one as a long-term rental with a 20% downpayment.

Note that zillow and other websites greatly understate your property taxes.  Expect to pay 4.5% once you account for village, town, school and county taxes. 

You are going to have a very difficult time finding a house in the area.  Median time on market is still 7 or 8 days and that's primarily due to the waiting period to allow everyone to bid.  Last property I bought had 8-9 offers.

New York has a lot of downpayment assistance grants and loans.  I don't know any details, but you should look into it.  As a new realtor (and student) you probably make below 80% median income which might help you qualify.

I work with Finger Lakes Federal Credit Union (for my primary) and Lyons National Bank (for my investments), both will probably be able to help you navigating downpayment assistance and your situation.  Both hold their own mortgages which is very convenient as well. FLFCU is not a good bank for residential investment properties, but great for buying a primary (which you are).  I have heard good things about Canandaigua National Bank as well.

Best of luck.

So you’re an agent who is also in college. Have you started your first househack with fellow college students? You’ll put 5% down but get 2% back on sale (which might pay for your closing costs) and then do a rent by the room to cover your expenses and downpayment for next year) Not sure which university you are at but both Henrietta and South Wedge are solid places to start (serving RIT and UR respectively) Good luck, I personally think Rochester is a great area to start due to constrained supply with a growing population

I am remembering a lawyer friend advising her parents on land issues. In most states if someone makes improvements to land that is not theirs, they tend to have some right to the value that they improved the land if not the land itself. Some states they need to believe the land is theirs, in others (such as Maine) they can know that their land isn’t theirs and still have a right. Some states will give the underlying land while others will give the land but expect the newer owner to compensate the old while still others would require the owner to compensate the person who performed the value add. The law varies greatly between states (and harkens back to the pioneer days). Which is to say if you do nothing while he develops, you will likely be gifting the land back to the developer.

This is probably unconventional advice.   But I would ask for advice and then follow up later with a thank you which includes how the advice worked out.  People love to be useful to others and asking for advice tends to give them an ego boost.   Ben Franklin used similar advice to turn an enemy into a friend (although his was asking to borrow a book).

There are some caveats here, you cannot be wasting time thus you need to demonstrate that you are taking action.  Here's an example

**** advice question, I'm looking to break into real estate, what advice do you have for me.

Better advice question, I'm looking to break into real estate.  I've been driving around ___, ___ and ___ neighborhoods looking for distressed properties.  I've been knocking on doors, there is one that seems like it's abandoned, however despite finding the owners name from tax records I cannot seem to get in contract with them to make an offer (despite trying x, y and z).  Do you have any advice?

On the better advice, you demonstrate that you are trying something, the progress you've made, and where you got stuck.  The advice can now be something very actionable, which you can try and then send them a thank you note based on how it went.  The experienced investor can give advice knowing that the seed will take fruit and likely bear fruit later.  As opposed to regurgitating some general platitudes which is what you will get if you ask the first question.