Originally posted by @Bruce Woodruff:
Originally posted by @Peter D'Auteuil:
California is the #5 economy by GDP growth in the world
Everytime anyone criticizes good ole California, people like you throw out this worthless fact. Yes Cali is huge, therefore their GDP is huge...
But lets look at this like a business....having a high gross income is quickly negated by debt. If you look at California's finances like a standard P&L sheet, you'll think again (if you are honest with yourself) Answer this: if I offered to sell you my business and it had assets of $1 million, but the debt was $2 million, would you buy it? Nope.
https://worldpopulationreview....California has the fifth-highest debt of any state, with total liabilities coming out to $362.87 billion. Total assets come out to $301.1 billion, creating a $55.96 billion net debt and giving California a debt ratio of 120.5%. California's debt and liabilities can be broken down into three categories: retirement liabilities, budgetary borrowing, and bond debt. However, combining California's federal, state, and local debt brings California's debt total to over $1 trillion. According to this report, the debt would cost each resident of California $33,000 or each taxpayer $74,000
And then there's the unfunded pension debt...the elephant in the room that no one talks about:
https://calmatters.org/comment...
And before you boast too much about California's budget surplus, let's not forget where $27 BILLION of it came from.....the Federal Govt's Covid bail-out.
Thanks Bruce. Did I mention budget surplus or GDP? CA GDP is huge and sure so it's debt! Gross domestic product is a measure of growth, how much our businesses are producing, not what budget money our state government squanders. The data showed this before and after any Covid funding from the fed. CA is still growing quickly according to the data, and easily dwarfs every other state. Is it the best place to invest? Absolutely not for everyone, it completely depends on your own situation.
To your "looking at it as a business" point, most growing businesses do not turn a profit... Take tech startup Tesla for example, it took 18 years to turn a profit, for 18 years spending far outweighed revenue. Did that mean it was not worth purchasing or investing in?
My point is that despite clickbait headlines, there is enormous amounts of business being done here even with ridiculous taxation and a poorly run government. Agriculture for example, even with water challenges it's some of the most fertile land and best climate we have in the states. Our farms and ports are not moving anywhere. From a real estate perspective this is scarce, valuable land and lots of jobs. The fact that you think that GDP data is a worthless fact is hilarious. I hope you don't consider growth as a worthless measure in your investment approach. If so you may want to take an economics class to learn up on this. Personally I want to stick with my valuable land by the beach, with no desire to move to a landlocked furnace.
And from a real estate perspective, for your exodus data, -1.3M over 10 years is great, I wish it was larger. Our metros are maxed out already and that's just a drop in the bucket for a state with nearly 40 Million. We don't have nearly enough housing for our 39M people, we really could use more of an exodus. I welcome an exodus! Come down to LA on the weekend and tell me everyone's leaving, please. We have a serious supply and demand constraint here in CA Bruce, incredible demand with limited supply. Our cities cant just build out more and more across a barren expanse. That limitation creates value in supply, that's Economics 101