All Forum Posts by: Paul Doty

Hi Everyone,
Does anyone know of a PM who works in 63118?
Thanks in advance!

Thank you for the tip on Consolidated CCU. I just sent them a note. 

Wow, what a list! Thanks Kerry!

I'm in the same boat as the OP; have a rental that now has significant equity. I'd prefer to use a HELOC vs. cash-out refi. If anyone can suggest a lender for Washington state non-owner occupied properties, let me know. Higher LTV is always preferred.

Hi Kelly! Your method sounds much better than sending them to Cozy. I was very concerned I'd have to take these new tenants to court for non-payment in the second month. The situation has subsided, but it's shown a weakness in my program. I'll want to have all their information on file which Cozy does not provide.

That sounds really inconvenient. Have you used other services besides Cozy? I need to screen a potential tenant in the next few days and I'm looking into options. 

Hi Dave,

This is an impressive and substantial report! I have it bookmarked to review in further detail later. I'm reading through the comments I see so far and tend to agree with the sentiment that it's a significant amount of information. Which could be good if that's what your audience is looking for. Personally, I enjoy it.

One comment I'll make that may not have been mentioned yet: Seasonality is important to check for with time-based data. I bring this up because I don't see it called out whether it's been applied or not. Typically seasonality will be removed prior to generating forecast values and then layered back in as applicable. I'm curious to know what the "days on market" of page 18 would look like with and without seasonally adjusted data. We can see a drop in days on market every spring, and this tracks with what we all experience. Have we seen similar drops YoY? The same concepts could be applied to the chart on pg. 19. We can certainly see a seasonal spike/dip every cycle, but the overall trend is likely more important here.

I also see a mention of smoothing techniques used in the footnotes. I assume this is an exponential smoothing method, and I'm curious to know more. Mostly for my own curiosity, not that I have any specific feedback about it. Would you opt for smaller Alpha values for a greater smoothing effect? I feel like it's always a tough call with wanting to catch the next trend while it's still early, but also avoid the noise.

I'm filling out the survey now and would love to discuss this more. Thank you for sharing your work with us!

I had a good one (read: Crappy Appraiser) recently. 

Value came in lower than expected, I start reading the report. The appraiser missed a half bath, lists the wrong square footage, a few other details were incorrect too. All of these details have been unchanged and listed on the tax assessor's website since the house was built in the 70's. I'm not sure we're even looking at the same house...

I take a look at the comps, and they're all in very different neighborhoods/school districts and 6+ months old. Values were adjusted for market appreciation over time, but with an arbitrary, rounded number which was not supported. 

He wont return calls or emails. Ignorance is bliss.

If I could downvote you, I would.

Please, find the door.

 I'd say that it's a risky gamble if you don't know what you're doing yet, regardless of where the cash comes from. I can already tell that you're trying to figure this out so you don't blow all your cash on deal number one, I think you'll be alright. I think using Heloc money is a great idea. Provided you're using it to buy good assets that perform (start paying you back pretty soon) and not just any property that comes along.

The great thing about a Heloc is the flexibility and simplicity. It sounds like you'll have enough equity to play with and get nearly any type of property you want. Have you figured that side of things out yet, what types of properties you'd like to purchase? Single-family homes, small multi-family, large multi-family, commercial, etc.?

@Jessica A. Thank you for the tips.
I remember looking at #4865. It was a little bigger of a project than what I'm interested in now. Lots 4607 & 4609 are in the part of town I like. 4609 does have a high opening bid, but I think there is still some good room for profit. The whole project will be a bit too expensive for me this time around.