Thanks for the thoughts on possible coming downturn.
re: downturn I think it's tough to predict the market. All markets are to some extent cyclic so we'll have to see a downturn sometime but I'm not convinced it's in the short or even medium term. I think the demand today is real demand from qualified buyers, not demand from "signature loan" buyers who are claiming they make lots of money when they are in fact unemployed. It's tough to get financing these days.
If the market does turn down this year or next year I'm not planning to sell houses, I'm planning to just rent them and ride it out. Yes my money would buy more during a downturn but on the flip side if a downturn happens in a year or two I'd have missed out on a year or two of cashflow tax free income.
Anyway, the thread is threatening to go off topic so I'd appreciate it if we can sort of stay on topic of how to buy buy and hold for cash flow in Phoenix now rather than whether or not real estate investment is a good idea or not. :)
Jeff, I'm not sure it's possible to get houses 20% below market easily in Phoenix now. I'm seeing multiple offers on properties in many cases, and generally rising demand for available housing. I attended a flipping seminar late last year and the consensus from all of the flippers was that it's tough to find a deal now in Phoenix. The houses that are 20% below market probably need quite a lot of work making them not such a great deal. I also am not a professional flipper with a pipeline generated by direct mail, wholesalers, bandit signs, etc. I'd just be buying from the MLS expecting to buy solid deals not exceptional deals.