All Forum Posts by: Roy Oliphant

Please forgive if my post seemed argumentative.  I was simply trying to make the point that we need to be aware of trends in population movement when considering potential turn-around situation.  I've heard it said 'you can repair a property but you cannot repair a neighborhood'.  Of course this is on an individual level as we have all seen neighborhoods re-gentrify.  But we certainly need to be aware that where populations are trending downward.    The fact that a place was once a great city doesn't protect it from decimation.

In my quick list of exceptions I should have, of course, mentioned Philly. It is a great city and has a unique place in American culture (of course, the same could have been said of Detroit).  Chicago may or may not be on the right side of the line.  And it may all be a moot point if Texas and the rest of the Southwest doesn't figure out how to deal with water demands of huge population growth.  Still, when I compare opportunities and see that Texas expects to grow by more than the entire population of New York state or the population of Illinois and Pennsylvania combined I think that is a place to look.

Does anyone really believe there is not going to be a significant loss of real estate values in Detroit and anywhere north east of the Chicago to Charlotte line?  Sure there will be pockets of profitability, NYC, DC, Boston, etc., but the industrialized cities are doomed to losing value as they continue to lose population.  You cant expect housing prices to rise in a city that once had units for 1MM people and now only has a population of 500K. Population predictions show Texas doubling in population over the next 25 years.  Few other states are even close.  Texas has plenty of land to help moderate housing price increases but still, people will only live so far from jobs, etc. 

So where is the better place to invest; a cheap building in Detroit or a run-down building in South Dallas, Tx.  Both are crime and economically challenged.  But if you are looking for more than a few years of cash flow or appreciation potential, I think Dallas is the place.