Thanks for the replies @Tony Otis @Beau Ryan and @Nate Thompson! So it seems I'm actually not conservative enough (underestimating insurance, no CAPEX, no management) when I was hoping I was being too conservative.
The house above is in Armatage in S. Minneapolis, but I've been looking everywhere in the metro West of 35W (family, work, and school are all West).
Tony, I'd love to swap out 3.5% for 20%, but I don't have the money for 20% down on a property in the 300's. A lot of folks on this site suggest that even if you have 20% down you should analyze the property as if it were fully financed because you can always fudge the cashflow numbers by just paying more down (i.e. if you paid all cash, the property would be all positive cash flow, but that doesn't mean it's a good deal as you mention with cash on cash return)
I've read a lot of positive things about FHA loans on this site, but the mortgage insurance is a serious drawback. It also seems like from a strength of offer perspective an FHA is less attractive to seller's agents in this competitive market.
Beau - just to clarify, you pay $150 per unit for water and garbage? So your total monthly cost is $300 for all garbage and water bills? Or is it $150 total for water and garbage when combining the costs for both units? Sounds like from your and Nate's comments I'm double counting that number in my expenses calculation.
Nate, I'm pre-approved and have funds liquid so I can write a check immediately. Ive also seen a lot of properties go in just a few days, but those are places that I evaluated as having similar cash flows as the property in this post which is one of the reasons I wrote the post. I was mystified as to why deals I thought were bad were flying off the shelf so I started to think my numbers were inaccurate. I saw a place I liked in Minneapolis that was asking 375k and the adjacent house that was the same size, age, and by the looks of it even the same builder sold 2 months prior for 310k. The place has bad cashflow and was pending 3 days after despite being 65k over a perfectly representative comp.
I've also been exploring many channels for off-market deals and am very interested in a 203k loan. The biggest problem with the 203k is that it is even less attractive than a standard FHA to a seller's agent. It takes an extra 30 days to close because the repair quotes have to be evaluated. I think we'd have to find a foreclosure to get a 203k to be a viable option and many folks have recommended that I don't pick up a foreclosure for my first property. Any thoughts on that?