All Forum Posts by: Nicolas Leon

This is relating to the newest video by BiggerPockets, involving inventory data trends by realtor.com . Fantastic video!

However, I'm confused on what the numbers are indicating. For instance my area, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, the numbers as of end of October: 

MM= Month over Month ---- YY = Year over Year

Median Listing price mm = 0% 

Median Listing price yy = 25% 

Active Listing count mm = 6% (downward pressure)

Active Listing count yy = 22% 

Median Days on Market mm = 5%

Median Days on Market yy = 0%

New listing count MM = -7% (upward pressure)

New Listing Count yy = -12%

The median listing MM over the last two months (October, September) stayed at 0%, Two months prior it dropped -3%, and -1%.

New Listing Count Month over Month last four months = -7%, -2%, -10%, -9%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At the end of the video, there was map charted by Moody indicating a 20%+ drop at the bottom of this market cycle in my area. From the current data above I am not sure what Moody is seeing to 20%+ drop off. To be clear, in no way am I declaring I know more, its the opposite, I'd like to understand what his team sees that I am missing. Thank you!

If I had to guess what is happening: 

1) Active listing counts have increased month over month due to the increase of Median Days on the market (houses are not selling as fast and therefore listings are carrying over month to month). 

2) Median Days on the Market has increased because affordability is down. This is indicated by the last 4 months Median Price month over month has either stalled at 0% or down -1-3% (Prices are lowering to attract buyers).

3) However with affordability down, there are still fewer new listings month to month creating upwards pressure.

I believe it will continue to drop between 0% and 5% for a few months but a drop of 20% at the bottom of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area seems like a very large amount to me.

New Construction perspective:

I live in South Florida and run a roofing company, while investing in new construction in Texas. It's challenging not having complete control, and not being able to ensure deadlines are met. Our GC has been very slow. For instance, we are 2 months since approved for the loan and have only cut trees. New construction is tricky doing out of state. It's very easy for a GC to put our task towards the bottom of the priority list.

Everyone else on our team is fantastic; real estate agent, lender, and subs. 

@Pavan Sandhu

Thanks for the advice. Excited for the future

I just got approved for a construction loan for a single family build. Very exciting. It’s an out of state project and my first new construction project as well. I am very fortunate to have a good support system around me who have done this before.

I would like to ask the smart minds of the BiggerPockets community: any advice and tips for a new guy like me?

Thank you