All Forum Posts by: Nicholas LaGatta

I would go ahead and get a loan estimate from a lender with your current situation, then ask them the impact if you waited to 7/1 with higher rents.  There are too many moving parts here to know if waiting would make a material impact.  However, I can tell you adequate debt-service coverage can lower the interest rates on certain loan products with certain lenders for certain borrowers, but it might not matter at all.  

I don't see it being worth the effort or money to break the lease or do cash for keys just to make this refi happen, just ride it out until the lease expires.  Worst case, accept a higher interest rate if you want the cash out right now.  

I don't see any value in getting an appraisal at this point.  Your lender most likely will require their own appraisal anyways.  

While trying illustrate the point I was making above, I came across this page: https://www.zillow.com/atlanta-ga/home-values/

There's plenty of evidence to support and counter my points.  Whatever alchemy goes into the Zillow Home Value Index and Zillow Home Value Forecast seems to supports my position, while actual single family median sale price does appear to be down by 8% since June.  As for forecasts, if anyone has a crystal ball that's correct more than 50% of the time, please DM me.

I see a lot of semantic confusion in these types of discussions.  Honestly, I'd like to have a better understanding of the key factors involved myself.  What I do know is that market pricing does not equal market rate of change.  

I haven't seen data to support a market price decline in Atlanta and I haven't seen anyone forecasting a decline as of present.  However, I have seen anecdotal evidence to support a present slow down in the rate of increase of market pricing, although I understand there is still an upward trajectory.  

I understand the average purchase price of homes in Atlanta continues to increase, but not as quickly as in the past year.  List price could also be used as an early proxy for market trajectory, but it's a weaker correlation than purchase price since list price changes based on a combination of Porter's 5 Forces (basically the whim of market stakeholders).

Does this make sense? Does anyone have a different point of view or access to better data/analysis? I'm eager to get access to MLS in the next few weeks, so I can do more substantive quantitative market analysis.

Yes, that's my understanding and market experience, but I should caveat that I'm not an appraiser.  If I remember correctly, my appraisal included a mix of a couple of single family homes in the immediate areas as well as the nearest similar duplex, which was a couple of neighborhoods away and adjusted for being in a lower-value neighborhood.  

I would use sales comparison approach, same as a single family.  You should be able to get in the ballpark with price per square foot and adjustments for room/bath count, amenities, locations, etc.  I might adjust down slightly for a duplex in most areas, since the number of buyers would be more limited.  
I have two duplexes and have analyzed dozens more.  The math seems to hold true to the above, so far.

I didn't have any alarm requirements, that would have been kind of a deal-breaker, since the place hard to be rewired and we were replacing and repairing most of the windows.  

I used Vacant Express recently for a recent fix and flip, although I bought it through American Family Insurance.  I actually ended up getting a payout of around $5k after a car crashed into the front porch.  The adjuster was friendly, professional, and efficient.  The pay out was prompt.  

Expect it to run 10-20% more than regular landlord insurance.  I'm definitely grateful I bought it.  

I think there's a specialist for almost every geography and niche of the market.  It's more important to understand the best/worst geographies and property types for your specialization, aspiration, and capability.  

If you're an investor looking for cash flow, stay out of Ansley Park and Virginia Highlands. If you're looking for strong equity growth / a flipper / looking for low-touch self-managed properties, stay out of (relatively speaking) stagnant war-zone pockets of the city (e.g., Bankhead, Adamsville, Constitution). If you want a highly-secure investment not likely to drop in value in any market, don't buy a high-end condo or new construction anywhere, especially in high-end neighborhoods. If you're a BRRRR strategist, you'll be well served by an up-and-coming neighborhood (e.g., East Point, Hapeville, College Park, Sylvan Hills), but you might find the spread too thin in a more mature area (e.g., West End, Adair Park, more and more Pittsburgh).

How did I do?  Anyone have a different point of view?  I'm sure there is a counter point to almost every point I made, hence, the caveat of your specialization, aspiration, and capability.

Dr. Roof did a full reroof for me this year.  They weren't the cheapest, but the price was fair and quality and speed were high.  I also know people who have had success with several repairs with them.  

This place is all around awesome, but on the south side of town: http://www.northsidematerialbrokers.com/